“Three Years And Five-To-Ten Years On” – Markets Still Don’t Grasp How Much The World Has Changed
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Three Years And Five-To-Ten Years On
Three years ago today, Russia invaded Ukraine. As we now stagger towards a possible negotiated end to the conflict –or at least a pause to rearm– the world around us is vastly changed even if some politicians and many in markets still don’t fully grasp just how much.
Inflation was supposed to be over after the initial Ukraine energy shock, or so we keep being told by central banks. However, Friday’s US Michigan consumer survey’s 5- to 10-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5%, the highest in 30 years. For younger/“I don’t do geopolitics” readers, that was the early post-Cold War era of US hyperpower globalization now ending; and it shows Main Street gets something Wall Street is struggling to accept.
Meanwhile, another flurry of Friday White House economic statecraft executive orders threatened to further upend the global trading and financial system and take us back not to the 1990s, nor the 1980s, but perhaps the 1880s.
‘US Trade Representative proposed charging Chinese ocean carriers, and those who use Chinese-built ships, for entering US ports. $1,000 per net tonne, up to $1m max ($1.5m for Chinese built and operated ships) is the fee, on a sliding scale even if fleet reshuffling meant they did not come to the US. That could force fleet bifurcation, as with the global ‘shadow fleet’ carrying Russian oil. So will quotas for US cargo exports to be carried on American ships. At first, 1% of all US container, dry bulk, and tanker exports on US-flagged and operated vessels; after two years, 3%; after three years, 5%, with 3% on US-built vessels; and after year seven years, 15%, with 5% US-built. This means a lot of ships must be reflagged; a lot of crews trained (“Learn to sail”); and a lot of shipyards and shipbuilding required. The economic impact is enormous: industry experts suggest it would push up freight rates 15-20%. This all echoes US mercantilist merchant marine history I flagged as something we could logically see reoccur in 2021’s ‘Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has offered to step down if it brings peace and allows Ukraine NATO entry, though it remains to be seen if those are compatible goals, or if NATO still means anything.
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2025/02/24/three-years-and-five-to-ten-years-on-markets-still-dont-grasp-how-much-the-world-has-changed/
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