Dr. Garth

Nurse Jiggles showed up today with hot pink lipstick and matching talons. Apparently it’s Valentine’s Day. Looks ridiculous, though, with her clinic smock and SuperBowl Taylor Swift white thigh-high stilettos.

I think she scared Jeremy. Too bad, as he already has Renewal Anxiety.

‘I know predicting future interest rates is near impossible, but my wife and I are due to renew our mortgage in May this year,” he moans. “I’ve been keeping an eye on the bond market and it’s a bloody rollercoaster. We have the opportunity to lock in a 3 or 5-year fixed rate around 3.99%. Should we take this and run, or is it worth waiting until closer to our maturity date in May to see if rates come down more? 3.99 feels pretty good, so it’s tempting.”

We know you’re stressed, but this is a ridiculous question. The renewal is just weeks away, and if you’re dealing with a major lender, like a bank instead of Harold The Loan Dude, chances are the renewal rate will be adjusted down if rates drop by then. Ask. Demand.

But 3.99% is a great numbner, nonetheless, below the posted one at most institutions and reasonable by historic standards. Keep things in perspective, because it’s unlikely Covid-era 1.59% loans will ever return.

But what about a Tariff Man recession and panic drops by the Bank of Canada? Our recent GreaterFool poll showed more than 70% of the five thousand people responding think the CB will be chopping the cost of money if new taxes hit our exports. Is that likely?

Sure. But Trump is unpredictable. Canada’s own retaliation could be costly and inflationary. Economists say there’s as much reason to think rates might rise to quell big price jumps as drop to deal with unemployment. It’s a crap shoot. Six months ago going variable was a no-brainer. Now it could be a quick trip to regret.

Take the rate, Jeremy. And go with weekly payments. Big savings.

Oh, wait. Nurse J is calling the Dr. over to the psych wing. She’s waving the giant sedative needle…

“I have to vent to someone,” cries the patient (he says his name is Ted) in protest. “And you are the victim.”

Turns out the 57-year-old has a meagre pension with a small ($73k) mortgage and a consuming fear of the future. “My house is my little sanctuary from all the world’s insanity.  It has two bedrooms, two bathrooms so if I need to rent out a bedroom in my old age I can do so.  But currently the master bedroom is my adult bedroom and the spare bedroom is all set up for 14 year old me.  Lately, I’ve been in there more and more, hiding.”

Ted figured $500,000 in savings would be enough to retire on once the debt was repaid. Then came the orange guy.

Six months ago I thought Trump was sounding and acting a scary amount like the mustache-dude of the 1940s.  Nothing has happened since then that makes me think I was wrong.  Here is what I believe his game plan to be: US isolation, then depression, then hyperinflation to reduce the national debt.

We’re currently in step 1.  He’s altering the political landscape in the US, and I fully expect he’ll round up the Democrats in the next two or three months and send them to Guantanamo Bay.  Sooner or later we’ll get to rename Canada, “Austria”.  When the US military starts to build up on their northern border, I am off the continent.  There are far too many Canadians clustered along a 500km wide border with the US for my comfort.  Or maybe it’s terror.

I’m trying to figure out how to get a bank account on another continent.  I’d invest in bitcoins, but the price is diving and I’m not sure that the NSA hasn’t broken the encryption.  ‘They’ talk far too often about how wonderful bitcoin is to not make me think they’re up to shenanigans.  I’m trying to coax relatives to at least get their passports in good order.  I have a cat I love to pieces.  Do I leave her behind with an animal shelter?  Do I stick it out?

We have no clear idea what the American president will do. But a blizzard of tariffs seems designed to force the devaluation of multiple currencies, create a new American revenue stream and be used as a weapon to achieve everything from territorial expansion to lopsided trade deals and US political dominance. Trump campaigned on cheaper grocery prices and American devolvement, but now the outcome will be inflation with Yankee fingers sticking in Gaza, Greenland, Panama, Ukraine and (maybe) Canada. Quelle mess.

Ted, ignore it. Turn off the news. Ignore the chaos, volatility and drama that swirls around this guy. There will be no depression in your lifetime. No hyperinflation. And no invasion. If anything, Trumpian policies will be pro-growth, leading to stiffer borrowing costs, a lower jobless rate and higher equity values. Canada is not going to be subsumed. The Americans cannot force it. Nor could they occupy this land.

Stick with your plan. Stop hiding.

Does your cat worry about MAGA? Then neither should you.

About the picture: “This is Winnie,” writes Jim in Alberta. “She is part of our friend’s family here in Red Deer and is laid back always just going with the flow. Except when a stranger comes by. Then she goes into attack mode ( I imagine she would be great at defending my sheep if I had any). Although I have not been a dog owner for the last forty years I seem to be surrounded them and I do enjoy photographing them.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/02/14/dr-garth-54/