Global PMI: Growth at 17-month Low

Key Takeaways:

• Global economic growth slowed in April 2025, with the Composite PMI falling to 50.8—its lowest in 17 months and below the long-term average.

• Service sector expansion weakened significantly, while manufacturing remained tepid with only slight growth in consumer and intermediate goods.

• Major economies like the US, China, and the euro area lost momentum, though India stood out as the only bright spot with accelerating growth.

• New business and export orders softened, with exports contracting at the sharpest pace since December 2022.

• Business sentiment hit a near five-year low, and global employment was flat as services hiring offset manufacturing job cuts.

Global economic output expanded at its slowest pace in 17 months, highlighting growing signs of fatigue in the world economy. The J.P. Morgan Global Composite PMI® Output Index fell to 50.8 from 52.0 in March, marking its eleventh consecutive month below the long-run average of 53.2. This deceleration was driven mainly by weaker service sector growth and persistently weak manufacturing performance, with particularly noticeable slowdowns in the United States, China, and the euro area.

The service sector, despite posting its 28th consecutive month of expansion, saw growth slow to one of the weakest points in its current cycle. Business and consumer services both experienced diminished momentum, while financial services was the lone sub-sector to record a slight acceleration. Meanwhile, manufacturing output saw only modest gains. Production in consumer and intermediate goods rose, but investment goods merely stabilized following a contraction in March.

Regionally, the economic deceleration was broad-based. The US, China, the euro area, and Australia experienced a loss of momentum. The UK and Brazil fell back into contraction territory, and Canada registered a deeper downturn. Conversely, India remained a standout performer, with robust and slightly accelerating growth.

New business volumes also showed signs of fragility. Although total new orders rose for the 18th straight month, the pace was the second-slowest in that sequence. Service sector new business growth was the weakest since November 2023, and manufacturing new orders contracted slightly—the first decline in four months. Export demand was particularly weak: after a brief uptick in March, new export orders fell sharply in April, posting the steepest decline since December 2022, affecting both manufacturing and services.

Business sentiment suffered due to increasing economic uncertainty and trade instability. Confidence hit a near five-year low, with pessimism rising in major economies including the US, euro area, China, Japan, and India. Only France and Canada showed improved outlooks.

Employment levels remained static in April. Job gains in the services sector, especially in business services and consumer-related categories, offset manufacturing job losses. Input costs continued to rise, extending an almost five-year inflationary trend. However, cost inflation eased to a three-month low and aligned with long-run averages. Businesses continued to pass some of these higher costs to customers through increased output prices.