ES Morning Update April 17th 2025
The small pullback yesterday was pretty much what I was thinking would happen as the short term charts were quite overbought. I’m not looking for much today as we close out the week. Next week I’m still thinking we’ll get some kind of move up out of this range. I don’t know how high, as rallying to the FP on the SPY might be asking too much. We shall see.
If there’s no positive news over the weekend (tariff deal?) then I have to think we will not breakout and make a big squeeze to the FP, which will actually be the trickiest move as many people are looking for some higher move up to short at. Maybe we don’t get it? It’s never easy to nail the high, or even the day where the high should happen on.
If today rallies back up to another lower high then the current high of this rally (5500 zone) that might be all we get? It’s really a tough call here as if I take a short today I’ll be risking something positive to happen over the weekend to cause a gap up and squeeze. If I don’t take a short, and we get no positive news, then the odds for a move down Monday will be high. Not sure how to trade it?
Nothing more to add. I’m just waiting patiently as the end of this rally should be either today, or as late as Monday or Tuesday. I don’t have a crystal ball, but if we get a retest of the recent 5500 high by the close today I’ll be thinking hard on short it.
Have a very Happy Easter.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/04/17/es-morning-update-april-17th-2025/
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