What does the failure of suburban Atlanta transportation referendums mean for transit?

A proposed 1% sales tax to expand transit was on the ballot in the Nov. 2024 general election in metro Atlanta’s two largest population suburban counties: Cobb and Gwinnett. With more Democratic voters in the region, better project lists, and no role for the controversial Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA) rail operator on the ballot, many experts thought the transit referendums would pass.

Voters had other ideas. Only 46% of Gwinnett voters supported the referendum, and 38% of Cobb voters supported it, leading both to fail. Why were experts wrong, what findings are transferrable to other regions, and what are the lessons for the future?

Elections do not happen in a vacuum, and other factors influence voters. The biggest factor in 2024 appears to be inflation. With core inflation running at 3.1%, after running at 3.3%, 8.2%, and 9.3%, respectively, the previous three years, voters were paying more for most consumer goods. Grocery prices were particularly volatile, with four-year increases of up to 50% in some categories. With so much more money going to food, voters, particularly swing voters, were not interested in giving more money to the government.

Another factor is commuting trends. More than 30% of metro Atlanta workers in professional services, information, finance, and management continue to work from home. While these occupations were never the biggest transit users, they tended to support transit as a vital option when they needed it. Now that they work from home multiple days per week, these workers may view transit differently. 

A third factor is priorities. Most voters don’t prioritize spending on transportation the way they prioritize spending on education.

In Georgia, education sales taxes pass at a 20% higher rate than transportation sales taxes. Many voters consider “school funding” more important than “transportation funding,” even when the results of that funding have been decidedly mixed. 

A fourth factor is the project list. While these two project lists included no rail projects and were less controversial than the previous two referendums, they still included many new fixed-route services. Given that bus transit ridership is not expected to recover more than 100% of its pre-COVID riders, even in a quickly growing metro area like Atlanta, there may have been too many bus routes and not enough microtransit (on-demand service that covers a zone instead of a fixed-route). 

Cobb County, in particular, had a large number of bus rapid transit (BRT) heavy projects. BRT heavy operates in a dedicated right of way. These projects require building a new dedicated lane or taking a travel lane away from cars, increasing traffic congestion. Most of the Cobb County BRT-heavy lines were planned to be operated in new right of way. In post-election surveys, many voters felt that these dedicated lanes were a poor use of resources. This may be why Cobb’s proposal had less support than Gwinnett’s, which did not propose BRT-heavy lines. 

A fifth major factor is the mood of the country. Republican Donald Trump won Georgia in his return to the White House. While Trump did not win Cobb or Gwinnett counties, the margins were closer than many experts predicted. Partisan affiliation is a strong indicator of voting for higher taxes; Democrats tend to support more taxes while Republicans strongly oppose them. 

What does this mean for future transit referendums?

First, given the failure of multiple referendums over the last few election cycles, the counties should likely hold off on transportation referendums. Other regions should also consider a pause. With the transit industry in a state of flux, waiting could yield more clarity on the best balance of routes in the future. 

If elected officials want to win referendums, they should schedule them during elections without other referendums. In elections with both an education and transportation referendum, the transportation referendum was 30% less likely to pass than if it were a standalone ballot measure. 

Finally, choose good project lists. While political mood and competing referendums are certainly factors, nothing can overcome a bad project list. The best example was the 2012 Atlanta region’s Transportation Investment Act list, where the 10-county region was asked to approve a project list where more than 50% of the funding supported transit in a region where less than 5% of the population commutes to work using transit. In the election, only about a third of voters supported those projects. Neither of the current project lists had this flaw, but the percentage of funding that Cobb County planned to dedicate to BRT-heavy was not proportional to commute choices. 

Since voters are not interested in increasing their sales tax rate, county governments must fund transit through other means, probably general budget appropriations. There are some advantages to funding transit with general funding.

First, the largest source of general funding is property taxes, which tend to be less regressive than other options since they are assessed based on the value of the property.

Second, general funds are more stable since they rely on more recession-proof mechanisms than other options.

Third, general fund outlays can be increased or decreased based on need. Therefore, transit systems with increasing passengers can receive more funding, while those with fewer passengers can receive less. 

However, there are also drawbacks. Sales tax revenue can be dedicated to transit, which is much more challenging than general fund revenue. As a result, there is less ability to budget from year to year, and bonding is challenging due to the lack of a stable revenue source. Sales taxes can also raise significant revenue, typically more than general funds. 

The voters have spoken regarding transit expansion in Cobb and Gwinnett counties. Now, elected officials in Georgia and across the country need to heed the “no new sales tax” message as they build and operate their transit systems.

The post What does the failure of suburban Atlanta transportation referendums mean for transit? appeared first on Reason Foundation.

Source: https://reason.org/commentary/failure-suburban-atlanta-transportation-referendums-transit/