Russian Vice Tightens

Another popular Russian military blogger named Starshe Edda delivered a fitting capstone with the following gut-tickling variation on Tsar Alexander III’s famous exclamation:

“Russia has only three allies: the Army, the Navy, and North Korea.”

Trump and Rubio continue to claim that a ceasefire deal is “very close” to happening, with Reuters having published the full Trump “plan”, after a week or two of teasing ‘leaked’ versions of it:

Reuters has published the final terms of the US peace proposal.

The plan was presented to European officials by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff at talks in Paris on April 17. It is the final US offer to both sides:

Both sides shall immediately enter into negotiations on the technical implementation of a permanent ceasefire.

Ukraine refuses to join NATO, but may become a member of the EU.

Security guarantees for Ukraine are provided by a military contingent of European states, which non-European countries can voluntarily join.

The United States de jure recognizes Crimea as Russian, and de facto recognizes Russia’s control over Luhansk region and the “occupied” parts of Donbass, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions.

Ukraine regains control over the “occupied” areas of the Kharkiv region.

 Ukraine regains control over Kakhovka Dam and Zaporizhzhya NPP. The station will be managed by Americans, electricity will be distributed to “both sides”.

Ukraine will gain unimpeded passage along the Dnieper and control over the Kinburn Spit

The United States and Ukraine are implementing an agreement on economic cooperation and development of mineral resources.

Ukraine will receive full restoration and financial compensation.

Sanctions against Russia, imposed since 2014, will be lifted.

The United States will cooperate with Russia in energy and other industrial sectors.

In the meantime, the message being sent by Russian officials is the opposite.

In an interview with Face the Nation, Lavrov categorically rejected the ZNPP plant being transferred over to the US, while again reiterating Russia’s main demands:

Sergey Lavrov once again approved Russia’s demands for ending military operations in Ukraine:

Ukraine must refuse to join NATO and remain neutral.

Kiev is obliged to stop legislatively and physically destroying everything Russian in Ukraine – language, media, culture, traditions and Orthodoxy.

Crimea, Sevastopol, DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions must be internationally recognized as Russian territory .

All sanctions against Russia must be lifted , lawsuits and arrest warrants cancelled and frozen assets returned.

Moscow must receive reliable security guarantees against the threats created by the hostile activities of NATO, the European Union and their individual member states on our western borders.

The task of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine is not removed from the agenda .

All of Kyiv’s obligations under the peace agreement must be legally enshrined, have enforcement mechanisms, and be permanent.

In fact, this even sounds like a toughening of the negotiating position, since previously a ceasefire required only the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from new regions of Russia. Now, Kyiv is required to internationally recognize their Russian affiliation.

Read the entire post.

My (Roth’s) observations: What with pushing China into a corner, the flare-up between Pakistan and India, the NORKs getting actual combat experience in Kursk, the Poles considering closing the Baltic to Russia, NATOs refusal to accept Russian victory over Ukraine, our own political instability, and many other issues, we must assume that the Fourth Turning is in active mode. A big war is likely. Prepare accordingly.