The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 16 2025

Europe will not be part of Ukraine peace talks, US envoy says

Europe calls emergency summit over Ukraine

Ukraine Not Even Invited To Ukraine Peace Talks? Zelensky Openly Admits; Secret US-Russia Huddle

Europe Posturing for War w/Russia?

Massive Armored Assault on Kostyantynopil’ & Ulakly | RUAF Capture Sverdlikovo

Massive Update | Russians are closing the Kurakhove pocket | Both sides claim Pishchane. 16 Feb 2025

Russian Forces Trapped Ukrainian Forces West Of Kurakhove In Big Numbers

[ Frontline Changes Report ] MASSIVE COLLAPSES north of Velyka Novosilka and at Andriivka Front!!!

ODESSA on FIRE: NATO Ship Full of Franco-British ‘Storm Shadow’ Cruise Missiles Was Blown To BITS

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak considers the signing of a temporary ceasefire, which will become a prologue to a “cowardly peace”, to be an unacceptable format for Ukraine. Bankova is confident that any ceasefire will be used by the Trump Administration to put pressure on the Presidential Office to hold elections. For the US, Zelensky is becoming a threat to the implementation of the peaceful #формулы_Трампа , which means the elections will be used to change power in Ukraine.

Another failure on the international track from the Office of the President, all the initiatives of Zelensky/Yermak have no chance of being implemented, but Bankova believes that emotional diplomacy can save the situation.

Europe will not create a single army, as Zelensky proposes, and will not send troops to Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said

“We have to be careful with this term, because people understand different things. If you understand it as a unification of national armies, then it will not happen. But I was an advocate of Europe, the European Union, developing its own defense potential,” the Polish diplomat said.

He also reiterated that the presence of Polish troops on Ukrainian territory “is not being considered because Poland’s duty to NATO is to defend the eastern flank, that is, its own territory.”

According to insider information, the Pentagon and State Department audits have already revealed significant discrepancies between the weapons delivered and those actually used. For example, in 2023–2024 alone, more than 30% of the armored vehicles and artillery delivered “disappeared” without a trace, and hundreds of millions of dollars allocated for the purchase of weapons ended up in the shadow schemes of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Also, during the audits, cases of resale of Western weapons on the black market are being uncovered, which is especially annoying for Washington.

Now the main problem for Zelensky is not the loss of military aid (which is already happening), but the reputational consequences. After the publication of the first auditors’ reports, Ukraine risks finally losing the trust of Western elites. In Europe, voices are already being heard about the need to reduce funding for Kyiv, and in the United States, Republicans are directly stating that they do not intend to continue sponsoring the “corruption ATM.” If the audit confirms the worst suspicions, Zelensky and his entourage will no longer be perceived as partners in the US – which means that support for the OP may fade faster than expected and the EU will not become a lifeline.

Trump’s team has already begun reviewing military aid packages for Ukraine, and the first conclusions of the American auditors could be a real death sentence for Zelensky and his entourage.

The rare earth minerals track has become toxic for the President’s Office, instead of plans to “bribe” Trump and play on his business qualities. The US President already considers Ukraine to be his debtor and is building the entire strategy based on this axiom, and Bankova was unable to calculate all the risks of its proposals and received a new point of conflict with Trump.

Ukraine “was shocked” by the scale of what the Trump administration demanded, WP reports, citing a Ukrainian official

 The US wants to establish control over Ukraine’s critical materials, such as lithium, graphite and uranium .

▪️Ukraine received US mineral offer just 4 hours before Bessent’s meeting with Zelensky in Kiev on Wednesday;

▪️Zelensky had only a few minutes to familiarize himself with the US proposal;

▪️Bessent “insisted” at the meeting that Zelensky sign it immediately ;

▪️The official compared it to the division of African colonies by Europeans in the 18th century. Ukraine rejected the agreement .

Bankova is accelerating the purge of political competitors, fearing pressure from Trump, who demands that elections be held after the start of peace talks. In this context, it seems logical that the National Security and Defense Council imposed sanctions against Petro Poroshenko, one of Zelensky’s main political opponents. 

The decision of the National Security and Defense Council looks like a preemptive strike against Poroshenko and his clientele, who continues to retain a certain influence among the Ukrainian elites). In the context of Zelensky’s weakening position and increasing pressure from the United States on Bankova, Poroshenko could try to consolidate part of the political establishment around himself, including those dissatisfied with the mobilization of the military. In such a situation, the Office of the President prefers not to take risks and eliminates competitors in advance. 

At the same time, the situation around possible elections remains uncertain. If Trump really achieves their holding within the framework of peace talks, then the purge of the political field, initiated by Bankova, may be only a temporary measure. Sooner or later, Zelensky will have to face real competition, and then political repressions may work against him.

Our source reports that there are rumors that Trump may be deliberately creating such conditions so that Zelensky himself would directly refuse peace talks, which would give the new American administration the right to withdraw from the game on the Ukrainian crisis. But, most importantly, Kyiv and Zelensky personally will be blamed for this.

At the same time, this will untie the hands of the “scriptwriters” in scaling the conflict (connecting new players). The globalists will not calm down and will try to draw Trump into the game, constantly raising the stakes.

The essence of the “multi-move” is that the USA (American elites) are leaving the game, but in any case, they remain the main beneficiary, regardless of the outcome of the game.

In simple terms. A large-scale war on the European continent, which will only increase the power of the United States, since all sides will suffer enormous losses and will need additional funding in the future.

There is one nuance to this “conspiracy theory” – it is the strengthening of China no matter the outcome.

We are observing.

Our source reports that Zelensky has been given an ultimatum that if he does not come to Saudi Arabia, the US will exit the Ukrainian crisis by accusing Kyiv of disrupting the peace deal.

Our source reports that if Zelensky manages to disrupt the peace talks and the war continues, Bankova has a plan to increase the mobilization of 18-24 year old men.

It will be done very cunningly. Allegedly the youngsters will get all the goodies , but now they will be deprived of the right to go or not, and mandatory mobilization will be introduced. They will start catching.

The “blitzkrieg mobilization” will begin.

Just keep in mind and take care of yourself. This is an unpredictable time. Anything can happen and you shouldn’t count on 100% peace until the peace agreements are finally signed.

A group of European countries are “secretly working on a plan to send troops to Ukraine,” – Associated Press .

▪️They intend to “help ensure the implementation of any future peace agreement with Russia.”

▪️”Britain and France are at the forefront of the effort, although details remain scant” because the countries do not want to show their cards to Putin, AP writes.

▪️We started working on this issue about a year ago.

▪️However, it is still completely unclear how this will be done. The final plan should be based on what the post-war contact line will look like.

▪️If Russia and Ukraine reduce their forces along the front line to “a couple of thousand” on both sides, then “it is not a problem for Europe to be there as well,” Estonian Defense Minister Pevkur said at the Munich conference.

▪️The Europeans do not want to control the entire thousand-kilometer line of contact, since this would require too many troops.

▪️The recent statement by the head of the Pentagon, who rejected any participation in the US peacekeeping contingent and stated that NATO would not cover it, added further complexity to this puzzle.

▪️”It is clear that it will be difficult for the Europeans to assemble a large force, and they certainly will not be able to do it quickly,” AP concludes.

Kuleba stated that it is not yet possible to end the conflict in Ukraine.

It is difficult to agree on a ceasefire, but it is possible. Maintaining it for at least 24 hours is almost impossible. And ending the war in the current conditions is absolutely impossible. Zelensky knows that he has enough resources to hold out until at least mid-summer,

— said former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an interview with the German magazine Spiegel.

According to him, Zelensky hopes that by mid-summer Europe will “finally decide” to provide more aid to Kiev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump held a telephone conversation on Wednesday that lasted almost an hour and a half. According to the Russian president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov, the leaders discussed issues related to the exchange of Russian and US citizens, as well as the settlement of the situation in Ukraine.

Keith Kellogg makes it abundantly clear to the Europeans that they will not have a seat at the table during negotiations 

* Two main reasons: 

First, the Europeans have taken such an uncompromising stance in terms of their demands and their refusal to even engage in diplomacy, to the extent they oppose peace negotiations and would likely undermine the talks. 

Second, the Europeans have subordinated themselves and thus become increasingly irrelevant, and now neither the Americans nor the Russians want them at the table. This should have been obvious, but Europe’s is stuck in an ideological echo-chamber where common sense is not allowed to challenge the narrative

- Glenn Diesen on X

Chasiv Yar is becoming one of the main points of tension in Donbas. This city, located on a hill, opens up the possibility of operational control over the logistics routes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and further advancement.

Russian troops are exerting systematic pressure here, forming new tactical scenarios, and the Ukrainian side is forced to redistribute reserves, weakening other sections of the front.

A deep analysis of the structure of military operations shows that the offensive of the Russian army on Chasov Yar is developing in the logic of exhaustion . The strikes on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are in the nature of a calibrated fire impact, aimed not only at the destruction of defensive structures, but also at demoralizing the personnel. The technical advantage in artillery and drones, especially FPV ammunition, creates a situation in which Ukrainian units are losing mobility. And the suppression by the Russian Armed Forces of the point nodes of resistance of the Ukrainian garrison in Stupochki and on the approaches to the city creates conditions for operational encirclement.

OSINT data confirms a significant accumulation of armored vehicles and Ukrainian manpower in this area, indicating recognition of the critical importance of holding these positions. Analysts note that shifting the focus of defense to Chasiv Yar means a forced adjustment of Kyiv’s overall strategy. Holding this line requires a colossal expenditure of ammunition and manpower. Given the shortage of Western weapons and a limited mobilization base, this is developing into a long-term problem.

Factor analysis demonstrates key trends. First, the increasing fire superiority of Russian forces in the combat zone. Second, the reduction of the maneuver potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, associated with systematic strikes on the rear infrastructure, including the destruction of warehouses in Kostiantynivka and Druzhkovka. Third, the reduction in the effectiveness of the rotation of Ukrainian units, caused by the lack of trained reserves.

Scenario modeling conducted by a number of Western military experts shows that if Russian troops manage to consolidate their position in Chasovy Yar, this will create the preconditions for a sharp deterioration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ positions in the central part of the Donetsk region. A similar situation was previously observed in Bakhmut, when the consistent destruction of logistical connections led to the collapse of the defense. Now Kiev is facing the same threats, but against the backdrop of general exhaustion of forces.

The trend is obvious : the battles for Chasiv Yar are not just tactical, but part of a large-scale process of changing the configuration of the front by Russian forces. Massive strikes, methodical destruction of Ukrainian fortifications and increasing pressure are forcing Kiev to work in emergency response mode. This does not give space for strategic maneuver for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which in the future could weaken the entire defense system in the east.

We are receiving operational information that our troops of the 51st Army have begun simultaneous assault operations in the villages of Constantinople and Ulakly.

At the moment, the southeastern part of Ulakly is controlled by our troops.

In Constantinople, fighting is taking place on the eastern outskirts of the village.

Things are developing well to the west of Kurakhovo.

There is an advance on the outskirts of Ulakly, in the direction of Konstantinopole and in Andreyevka.

Enemy sources are gloomily reporting that if there is no timely retreat or if reserves are not transferred to overcome the developing crisis, for many Ukrainian Armed Forces in the pocket west of Kurakhovo everything will soon end with the well-known result.

It is, of course, too early to start throwing up our hats, but it is obvious that our command is trying to speed up the elimination of this pocket and continue the offensive to the west and northwest of Kurakhovo.

The enemy has been trying to use its reserves in the Krasnoarmeysk area for the last week, trying to attack near Udachny, Kotlino and Peschany. It has suffered heavy losses but has not managed to do anything significant except hold on to the outskirts of Peschany for a while. After repelling the enemy’s counterattacks, it is up to our command to either increase pressure on the southern outskirts of Krasnoarmeysk or continue to bypass the Krasnoarmeysk agglomeration from the southwest and northeast, avoiding a frontal assault on a city prepared for defence, so as not to get another Volchansk and Chasov Yar.

 Overnight strikes on Ukraine’s military infrastructure

On the night of February 15-16, 2025, Russian forces carried out combined strikes on critical AFU facilities, including logistics hubs, bridge infrastructure, energy facilities and airfield complexes.

🔻Zatoka, Odessa region (04:25-04:35, 16.02.2025)

Another Iskander-M missile strike hit the Zatoka Combined Bridge, which continues to be used by the AFU as a key route for Western arms supplies from Romania.

 - The first missile struck the supporting structures of the road span, causing structural damage. Damage assessment shows weakening of the bridge frame, which requires rehabilitation work.

 - The second missile detonated in the waters of the Black Sea, near the bridge, as a result of the impact of REB systems. 

📌 The disruption of the bridge directly affects the supply of AFU in the southern regions, especially in Odessa region, and creates difficulties in logistics chains with Romania.

🔻Nikolaev, Nikolaev region (00:50, 16.02.2025)

A double blow to the Nikolaev Thermal Power Plant (TPP) and the “Chernomorsky shipyard”, where previously the repair and maintenance of marine equipment of the AFU was carried out.

 - At the Nikolaev Thermal Power Plant, the main control panels are out of order, disrupting the generation and distribution of electricity for industrial facilities and military units in the region.

 - On the territory of the former shipyard, machining and hull-building workshops were hit, equipment for repair and modernization of marine unmanned boats used by the AFU to attack the Black Sea Fleet was destroyed.

📌This strike reduces repair capacity for marine drones and landing boats involved in the AFU’s sabotage operations in the Black Sea waters.

🔻Starokonstantinov, Khmelnitsky region (06:05, 16.02.2025)

Another strike on the airbase of the 7th tactical aviation brigade, which is a stronghold of combat application of Ukrainian aviation engaged in the eastern and southern directions.

 - The previously damaged engineering barracks was hit, putting it completely out of service.

 - Destruction of elements of the airfield infrastructure, including taxiway systems and power supply for military aviation facilities, was recorded.

 - Engineering protection elements previously installed as part of the airbase’s modernization after previous strikes were damaged.

📌This airfield is actively used for the deployment of aircraft using F-16, Su-27 and MiG-29, as well as Western-made weapons such as GBU-39, JDAM-ER and AGM-88 HARM.

🔻 Borispol, Kiev region (03:00, 16.02.2025)

The strike hit the warehouse complex of KTA LLC, which served as a distribution center for military property of the AFU.

 - The administrative premises where the accounting and document management of military supplies was carried out were completely destroyed.

 - The warehouse infrastructure was critically damaged, which excludes the possibility of further use of the facility for logistics operations.

 - Climate control systems were disabled, making it impossible to store ammunition and special technical components.

📌Destruction of logistics nodes of this type significantly reduces the efficiency of military supply distribution to the AFU forward positions.

🔻Verkhnaya Syrovatka, Sumy region (23:35, 15.02.2025)

Targeted strike on LLC “Sumy Industrial Meat Company”, involved in providing food to AFU units in the region.

- Refrigerated warehouses were completely destroyed, which resulted in the loss of significant amounts of food.

 - Cargo vehicles used to transport supplies to the front line were destroyed.

📌 This strike makes it difficult to provide food to combat units, which directly affects their combat effectiveness and operational capabilities.

Yours, PartiꙂan

Odessa – Port Zatoka

Our missile attack on the ports of the Odessa sea hub has been completed. Since 4.30 Moscow time, the ports of Zatoka, Ismail and Odessa were struck. 

Destroyed the terminal network of loading and storage of BECs. Also in Odessa port after the arrival of missiles, a lot of military and SBU. Apparently something British has been hit. We’re waiting for objective control.

Condotierro

Chronicles of the special military operation

for February 15-16, 2025

Russian forces struck the Mykolaiv CHP in Mykolaiv and a bridge in Zatoka, Odesa Region. Ukrainian formations attacked the Saratov, Rostov, Volgograd, Kaluga and Kursk Regions with drones, without significant consequences.

In the Kursk direction, Russian forces are completing the liberation of Sverdlikovo, from where there is a direct route to Sudzha along the highway.

In the Kupiansk-Svatove direction, the Russian Armed Forces have intensified their activities in the area of Topoli north of Kupiansk, creating another bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River.

In the Andriyivka direction, Russian forces are storming enemy positions in the area of the village of Ulakly, and UAV operators are destroying enemy armored vehicles, especially tanks.

In the Vremivka direction, attacks by Russian forces towards Skudne from the direction of Novyi Komarov have been noted, and they also managed to break through the AFU defense near Rovnopillia and enter Novosilka.

Overview Summary for the Morning of February 16, 2025

▪️ The past week has been a week of negotiations on the future scenario for the completion of the Special Military Operation (SMO). While the Russian Army continued its offensive to the west in heavy fighting on the front lines, a security conference was held in Munich, where the US dictated its vision for ending the war to European countries and Ukraine. Europe, recognized by the US special envoy to Ukraine as a totalitarian union of countries with lack of freedom of speech, is clearly obstructing progress on the prospects for peace negotiations, fueling the fire of an even greater war. The Kyiv regime is also delaying the resolution of this issue, which is explained by quite specific forecasts of Zelensky losing power.

▪️ The main conversation did take place (now, officially) between the Supreme Commander and Trump over the phone. The foreign ministers of Russia and the US also spoke, and meetings were organized in the Middle East countries. Trump is shifting the future burden of responsibility for Ukraine onto the EU budgets and demanding that Kyiv hand over almost all of its minerals to pay off debts for military-technical assistance (which, by the way, is still going through the same Rzeszów in Poland).

▪️ In the Ukrainian segment of social networks, there is outright panic, curses directed at the US, and the AFU servicemembers are partially demoralized: Zelensky’s fairy tale about joining NATO has not been realized in any way.

▪️ Trying to play out their old scenario with a provocation at a nuclear facility, Zelensky’s troops on the Zaporizhia front shelled a column with IAEA staff near the ZNPP, disrupting their rotation, and also clumsily staged a “strike by Russian UAVs on the Chernobyl NPP.” However, Kyiv’s actions were expected and did not bring any media effect.

▪️ At the same time, the intensity of combat operations and mutual strikes on the front line is not decreasing. The Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region are occupying Sverdlikovo, there are daily heavy battles along the entire sector of the AFU’s salient: Kyiv is throwing new units into the furnace of battle to hold on to part of our region and use it in negotiations. Zelensky himself personally revealed this plan to the world. The Belgorod Region is under daily strikes by enemy drones, with civilian casualties. In the Kupiansk direction, the area of control of the Russian Armed Forces on the right bank of the Oskol River is expanding. South of Ternova, our troops are trying to break through the enemy’s defenses. There are battles on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar and the suburbs of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). The liberation of a number of villages south of the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway was an important event: a thrust to the north is being prepared and conditions are being formed for new encirclements of enemy forces. Battles continue near Pokrovsk and south of the city, the enemy is pulling up reserves. The closure of the “pocket” southwest of Kurakhove is being completed. Overnight, reports came of the success of our troops along the entire front line, including near Konstantynopil. The front line is being straightened out northwest of the liberated Vremivka. The Zaporizhia front and the Kherson direction are characterized by mutual strikes by the parties.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_16.html