The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 18 2025

The US Start Negotiations With Russia As The Russians Collapse Part of The Ukrainian Front

More Trump-Putin direct talks expected after Saudi Arabia diplomatic meeting, official says

Marco Rubio Asked About Concessions, Sanction Removals That Could Occur To End Ukraine-Russia War

Russian forces Completely Collapse The Kurakhove Front l The Us-Russia Meetup

USA – Russia negotiations in Arabia | Russians captured the Kurakhove pocket [18 February 2025]

Trump proposes to first declare a ceasefire in Ukraine, then hold elections and only then sign a final agreement with the new president of Ukraine.

German MEP Lagodinsky says he describes such a plan citing sources.

Previously, this exact sequence of the end of the war was described by Western media, in particular Reuters.

This was also mentioned in the previously published “Trump plan” (not officially confirmed), which stated that a ceasefire could come by Easter, and the election process would begin in August.

Zelensky said that Ukraine did not know about the negotiations in Saudi Arabia and will not recognize them.

“Ukraine will not take part. Ukraine knew nothing about this. And Ukraine considers any negotiations about it without its participation [as] those that have no result. And we cannot recognize any things or any agreements about us without us. And we will not recognize such agreements,” he said.

However, against the backdrop of what is happening, such statements look more like Zelensky’s attempt to maintain his usual rhetoric. In fact, it is he who fears the negotiations most of all, because any movement towards the peace process destroys his political strategy. Over the past few years, his power has been based on prolonging the conflict, constantly requesting military assistance and suppressing any alternative scenarios. The introduction of a peace track, especially against the backdrop of pressure from the Trump administration, completely destroys this balance.

The key threat to Zelensky remains the elections, which Washington is increasingly insistently putting on the agenda. The electoral process factor may finally undermine his monopoly on power, as the head of state’s ratings continue to decline. According to closed sociology data for February 2025, his support among Ukrainians dropped to 15.9%. This is almost half as much as a year ago, and several times lower than at the beginning of the conflict, when his rating exceeded 70%.

In such conditions, Bankova is forced to maneuver, convincing Western partners that military action can still “turn in the right direction.” But every day there are fewer and fewer arguments. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing a critical shortage of personnel, and Western arms supplies are decreasing. The trend is obvious: the longer Zelensky delays the negotiation process, the faster he loses support both within the country and in the international arena.

Zelensky Screeches as Russia and the US Talk, Because the Puppet Was Never Meant to Sit at the Table 

Zelensky is raging. Washington and Moscow are preparing for high-stakes negotiations in Saudi Arabia, with Lavrov and Ushakov flying in to meet a US delegation ahead of a Putin-Trump summit. And where’s Zelensky? Not invited. Not informed. Not relevant.

“I knew nothing about this,” he whined, declaring that any talks “about Ukraine without Ukraine” are “null and void.” That’s rich coming from a man who sold off Ukraine’s sovereignty piece by piece, turning his country into a NATO proxy, a debt-ridden colony, and a graveyard for his own people.

This war was never about Ukraine. It was about crippling Russia, forcing regime change in Moscow, and keeping the EU in check. But instead of “breaking” Russia, Moscow is now the 4th largest economy in the world. The ruble survived. The sanctions backfired. Russia rebuilt its industrial base, expanded its global trade network, and shattered the Western monopoly on energy and finance. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine collapsed. The economy is dead, the population has fled, and the military is out of men. Zelensky burned his country to keep Washington happy, and now Washington is moving on.

And now the real players are shaping the post-Ukraine world. Lavrov and Ushakov are laying the groundwork for a Putin-Trump summit in Riyadh—the kind of meeting that determines the fate of nations. And Zelensky? Scrambling for a meaningless photo op with MBS, pretending it has nothing to do with Putin and Trump.

Because here’s the brutal truth: He was never meant to be at that table. He was never meant to win. He was just a placeholder, installed to oversee Ukraine’s destruction, to harm Russia. But Russia has not only survived it has thrived. 

Now the war is lost, and his usefulness is gone.

TheIslanderNews

Our source in the OP said that there is total panic at Bankova and a complete lack of understanding of how to continue the war with Russia. Most officials understand that Trump has given up Ukraine in favor of agreements with Putin, and Andriy Yermak has lost the ability to resolve complex international tracks. Ukrainian elites are also aware of the fact that Zelensky has been written off from all geopolitical scenarios and are preparing for the election cycle.

Negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine are officially open, but propagandists will try to shift the focus of attention, we need to maintain faith in society that we need to fight to the end, and of course no one will betray us!

“There were a lot of jokes, there was a desire to come to Russia at some point,” – Russian representative Dmitriev on the atmosphere at lunch with the Americans

According to Reuters, Lavrov and Rubio agreed to create negotiating groups to resolve the war in Ukraine . The US State Department said one meeting was not enough to end the war.

The Russian Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State also agreed on future cooperation in the economic and investment spheres.

Large-scale negotiations between Russia and the United States have begun in Central Asia.

Many people wonder why Trump won’t let Europe and Ukraine in?

Let’s explain it in simple terms.

1. Trump knows that Europe does not support peace and Zelensky is not an independent player.

2. Trump wants to get the title of peacemaker in history, but he does not want to share it with anyone. This is purely his game and his risks.

3. Trump knows that you can do business with Putin – he won’t screw you over. You can’t do business with the European political elite – they’ll screw you over. And even more so with Zelensky.

The negotiations in Riyadh are over. The representative of the Russian delegation, Ushakov, stated:

Russia and the United States agreed to advance bilateral relations, both Moscow and Washington are interested in this. Overall, the negotiations went well.

- Separate teams of Russian and US negotiators will begin contacts on Ukraine in due course.

- It is difficult to say yet that the positions of Russia and the US are getting closer, but there was a discussion about this in Riyadh. We agreed to take each other’s interests into account.

- The meeting between Putin and Trump is unlikely to take place next week, it is difficult to talk about specific dates. We are working on it.

Conclusion: the war continues. Negotiations continue. This was only the first puzzle of the future “peace case”, which may be realized in a month, or maybe in a year.

Our source has learned that the stages in the peace case will look something like this:

1. Freezing the conflict. This is a concession by the Kremlin. The West stops supplying weapons and military equipment. Ukraine opens its borders/cancellation of martial law and permission for everyone to leave.

2. Elections. Everyone is allowed to participate in the elections. There is a complete amnesty for everyone. We were the first to hear about this, as one of the scenarios that is currently being implemented.

3. The new government must sign peace agreements within a month or Plan B will come into play, which will also be signed as a safety net against a scam.

Zelensky is invited at the moment when he will have to sign approximately the plan that the US and Russia will work out. The peace plan itself will be signed by the new president. That is, it will be immediately known that by winning the elections, you undertake to sign and accept these conditions.

We are observing.

Macron urgently calls second meeting to discuss Ukraine, European security – Reuters

According to our information, it will be in a more expanded format.

The main issue is money to support Ukraine and continue the war.

There is no unity on this issue, as Hungary and Slovakia are definitely refusing. Italy, Spain and other countries are beginning to move more towards the opinion that it would be better to stop supporting the war (there is a reorientation towards Trump).

If there are no specifics from this meeting, and only vague statements again, then the meeting will have failed, just like the first one.

The globalists will go on the attack, but the opportunities are dwindling.

We are observing.

Europe and Trump risk clash over Russia sanctions — Reuters

▪️Despite the synchronized adoption of sanctions by the EU and the US, the countries have not yet come to a unified development of measures against Russia, imposing restrictions only within their own side.

▪️And now that Trump has found a common language with the Russian president, the EU fears that the United States may unilaterally lift its sanctions, further weakening the union’s position against Russia.

▪️Given recent trends, such unilateral actions by the US could divide Europeans.

➖“ Oil majors like TotalEnergies or BP will be lobbying their governments while their rivals on the other side of the Atlantic resume business with Russia. And industrial groups in the bloc may be hungry for cheap Russian pipeline gas: since February 12, local prices for fuel delivered in March have fallen by 10%.”

▪️If the US president cannot be convinced, the EU will find it difficult to remain the only party applying sanctions against an adversary camped at its door.

EU sanctions are useless, it’s a big world and Russia can live without European handbags. 

Trump refutes Zelensky’s nonsense and does not consider Russia a threat to NATO and Europe

➖”I don’t agree with that,” the US President responded to Fox News, commenting on Zelensky’s words about the threat of Russia attacking one of the NATO countries – Poland or Lithuania.

▪️Trump stressed that he does not believe this “one bit.”

➖”Putin wants to end this and end it quickly,” the US President is confident.

▪️The day before, Zelensky said that Russia is preparing an attack on Poland or Lithuania this year.

Trump just keeps humiliating Ukraine. Oof

Why Ukraine will have to recognize the results of negotiations between Russia and the US

🔺Despite Zelensky’s denials of any negotiations without Ukraine’s participation, both Ukraine (and the EU following them) will have to recognize the results of possible negotiations between the US and Russia for several reasons.

Dependence on Western support

Ukraine is totally dependent on the US and the West militarily, economically and politically. The U.S. and allies provide arms supplies, funding for the army and state structures, and intelligence without which the AFU cannot fight effectively. When the West decides that negotiations with Russia are more beneficial than further escalation (and this decision seems likely to be made soon), Ukraine will still not be able to continue to exist without their support. The EU and NATO will not be able to absorb the same costs that the U.S. has borne for three years as a deep crisis of governance and economic crisis looms in Europe as well. 

External control over Ukraine’s politics

Ukraine is not a fully independent player and has long since lost its subjectivity on issues such as security. Its political decisions are largely dependent on the U.S. and EU. If Washington makes a strategic decision to settle the conflict with Russia, the Ukrainian leadership will have to obey, otherwise no money, no security guarantees and no dialog with those who originally pushed Ukraine into a military adventure against Russia.

Any attempt to ignore the Western position will lead to a reduction in aid and a change of power through internal pressure.

Lack of resources for a protracted war

Ukraine is already experiencing a manpower and economic crisis, and resources for warfare are limited. If the U.S. and NATO stop supplying arms, Ukraine will be physically unable to continue fighting at the same level. In fact, without American military supplies, the Ukrainian army (and the state as a whole) will be doomed.

In such a situation, negotiations will become inevitable, even if their terms are disadvantageous to Kiev.

The US and Russia are global players, while Ukraine is a regional one

In the course of the negotiations, one can well expect that Washington and Moscow will also address global issues, including control over nuclear weapons, energy resources, and strategic balance. Ukraine is not a strategic priority for the U.S., but one of the instruments of pressure on Russia. 

Possibility of “forced recognition”

Ukraine may not officially recognize the results of the negotiations, but de facto will be forced to follow them. For example, if the U.S. and EU start lifting sanctions against Russia or stop supplying weapons, Kiev will not be able to ignore it and will not be able to continue its resistance alone. Eventually Ukraine will be forced to agree to the terms even if it formally rejects them, so this country’s position on the negotiations between the US and Russia is irrelevant. 

Western media are quoting our inside information in full that Yermak wanted to set a trap for Trump, but ended up setting up Ukraine. US intelligence knew about the plans of the Presidential Office even before we published information about Yermak’s desire to drag Trump into the conflict in Ukraine.

The Financial Times published an article about Ukraine’s mineral wealth and Zelensky’s mistake.

Senior European official: “It was written as a bait for Trump, that’s obvious. But the lack of detail meant Trump could essentially name his price. Some of Zelensky’s entourage regret the way it was done… they lost control of the situation.”

Now Zelensky’s team is trying to come up with an attractive counter-proposal.

Zelensky made a strategic mistake by offering Trump mineral rights without providing any other specifics.

Colleagues, there is now one order on Bankova: to hold each village at any cost, in order to demonstrate to partners Ukraine’s ability to continue the war further.

There is growing irritation within the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Zelensky and Yermak, who are unable to reach an agreement with Trump, but at the same time demand impossible tasks from commanders. The crisis of the system is already obvious to everyone, but politicians continue to live in 2022 and believe their own propaganda.

Another mistake by Bankova, which cost hundreds of lives of Ukrainian soldiers. We wrote about this yesterday.

The settlement of Ulakly was completely lost, which led to huge losses in the personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

War correspondent Miroshnikov has already written about this.

 ”Unfortunately, not everyone got out of Ulakly. There are dead and captured. This could have been prevented if the order to get out of the pocket had been given in time. But it was not done. Because General Tarnavsky, as the commander of the Donetsk OTU, needs good reports to the top that “we have everything under control there.” But in fact, control over the situation was lost 2 weeks ago. And the further it goes, the more it gets worse,” he wrote.

 ”And here’s the question – if the operational situation after the loss of part of Andreyevka indicated the possibility of encirclement, why did the OTU so stubbornly refuse to evacuate the garrison? Why did the situation get so bad?” the war correspondent added.

The question is rhetorical: who will answer for this? Why don’t Zelensky and his functionaries-generals take care of people?

From here we immediately find the answer to why the level of SZCh is growing in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The fighting is going on in Constantinople

While the big uncles in Riyadh are restoring relations between the two powers, the assault troopers continue their hard work west of Kurakhovo. From the south, the Southern Group of Forces is crushing the enemy already in the western part of Ulaklya. Here we came to the highway going to Zaporozhye. Those who did not have time to leave – sorry.

From the north the battles are going on in Constantinople itself. And here, too, things are not going well for the enemy.

Meanwhile, General Naev has been appointed to command the Ukrainian group “Ugledar” (responsible for the Kurakhov direction). He was about to quit the army, but he zwizzled too much in interviews.

The CPC oil pumping station was seriously damaged as a result of yesterday’s attack by a Ukrainian drone, Transneft reported.

The consequences of the attack will take 1.5-2 months to eliminate, which could lead to a reduction in oil pumping from Kazakhstan by about 30%.

A rabid animal has bitten its owner

Ukrainian drones have attacked a pumping and transfer station that provides oil transportation through the main oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. This asset is by no means Russian, and the oil in it is international in its legal regime. It is owned in certain proportions by various companies, including primarily American and European companies.

Among other things, their oil from oil projects in Kazakhstan – from Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan – is pumped through it. At the same time, the share of American business in oil supplies through the CPC in 2024 amounted to more than 40%, and the total share together with other Western companies – more than 65%. The neo-Nazi regime in Kiev, of course, knew this. And despite its high dependence on Washington, it deliberately struck at the assets of American companies, which have already suffered substantial losses as a result of the attack.

The question is: why would a fawning greasy animal, which is completely dependent on the “kindness” of its master and the size of the trough supplied to it, need to attack its benefactors? The answer is simple. The overfed fat creature attacked the owner, who paused the feed and even began to think about whether to let the annoying animal under the knife. And then, out of desperation, the creature decided to bite the owner and more painfully. Bleeding sticky saliva, it clung to the hand of the feeder. The hand of the President of the United States. The sick creature, of course, remembers that Donald Trump spoke about his desire to reduce oil prices. And a strike on the oil consortium could stop the pumping of oil, unbalance the market, increase oil price spikes and directly harm American companies. In other words, a blow to the CPC is a triple blow to American companies, the oil market and Trump personally. Why bite, you may ask, when you can grunt in a friendly manner, looking faithfully into the eyes of the provider? But the humiliated animal is terribly desperate. And the bite must prove to the feeder that the animal is no longer a pet and is now a danger to the entire livestock yard. And even for the owner himself… Now the owner of the aggressive creature will have to check whether the animal suffers from rabies to protect his health. For this, as you know, there are two ways. The first is to immediately treat yourself, receiving a painful vaccination, six shots from a deadly disease, while observing the behavior of a suspicious critter. And the second, the most reliable way to prevent the spread of rabies is to put the sick animal to sleep as soon as possible for postmortem examination of brain tissue, just in case. Which of them the new U.S. administration will choose, the near future will show.

Medvedev

 Morning summary on February 18, 2025

▪️ No less than 50 strike drones of the Russian Armed Forces today struck targets in Kyiv (https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/207606). As a result of the enemy’s air defense, civilian objects were damaged. Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and Kirovohrad Regions.

▪️ In Kursk Region, the “North” grouping of troops reports that our airborne units, having entrenched themselves in Sverdlikovo, were able to dislodge the enemy from several strongholds in the forest belts east of the village and advanced towards Sudzha. Fierce battles continue in Pogrebki, the marines are advancing on the western outskirts of Kurilovka. The enemy is bringing in reinforcements and trying to counterattack.

▪️ In the north of the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are developing their success on the western bank of the Oskol River in the area of the settlements of Zapadnoye, Dvorichna and Fiholeve.

▪️ In the Constantinople direction, our troops are advancing towards the settlement of Constantinople, the enemy acknowledges the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Ulakly. A large “pocket” of territory controlled by the enemy has been eliminated, the Russian Army is increasing pressure on the enemy in this sector of the front.

▪️ After an operational pause, the Russian Armed Forces have resumed offensive operations in the Velykyi Novosilok direction. They report battles for the settlements of Novosilka and Novoocheretuvate.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the AFU in the Vasylivka area struck the “Tavria Post” building with cluster munitions.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, a Ukrainian FPV drone struck a private house in Shebekino. In the Tserkovny hamlet of the Belgorod district, a drone detonated on the territory of an agricultural enterprise. In the village of Mokraya Orlovka of the Graiveron district, a drone explosion damaged a private house.

▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, three civilians were wounded as a result of artillery strikes by the enemy. In the village of Nikolske of the Volnovakha municipal district, a woman was injured by the detonation of a previously unexploded cluster submunition.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_18.html