The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 03 2025

Decisive Offensive Has Begun | Kostyantinivka & Pokrovsk Operationally Encircled By July

Russian Invasion SHOCKS Pokrovsk — Dozens of Ukrainian Soldiers Surrender Instantly!

Pokrovsk Ignites: Russia Advances on Dnipro as Zelensky Shuts Down Peace Talks

Ukraine War Update: INSANE Russian Breakthrough Forces Ukrainian Retreat From Novoolenivka

Putin’s Forces Smash Ukrainian Drone Blitz; 170 UAVs, U.S Missiles Shot Down Over Crimea

Residential building hit by Ukrainian drone in Russian city of Novorossiysk

The President’s Office continues to escalate the situation, given the importance of the parade for Putin and the possible consequences. Andrey Yermak wants to use the situation and intercept the information agenda on the peaceful track, forcing the Kremlin to agree to a long-term truce without preconditions.

Ukraine Cannot Guarantee the Safety of World Leaders in Moscow on May 9 , Zelensky

Zelensky rejected Putin’s proposal for a 3-day ceasefire on May 9; 

ccording to our information, the visit of the head of China Xi Jinping to Moscow on May 9 is of a negotiating nature.

The Chinese leader is flying to Moscow with some important proposals.

Some of our sources compare Xi’s visit to Putin’s visit to the XXIV Winter Olympic Games in February 2022.

Next, you all know what happened, which means… Well, you get the idea.

 We are observing.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed in an interview with Fox News what we had previously reported when we indicated that the Ukrainian crisis had exhausted its interest for the United States.

 ”There comes a point where President Trump has to decide how much more time is worth spending at the highest levels of our government. It’s not that the war in Ukraine is unimportant. But I would argue that what happens with China is more important in the long run for the future of the world,” he said.

This is why the US rhetoric towards Russia has “hardened” in recent times and the Americans have started “selling military aid packages” to Kyiv. The reason is not that the Kremlin is not going to compromise on the Ukrainian crisis. The reason is Xi’s visit to Moscow and the upcoming negotiations. Washington is sending a public signal to the Kremlin.

Let us add that the Kremlin demands that Trump completely withdraw the US from the Ukrainian crisis (not give money, not sell weapons), in exchange for its neutrality in the Chinese case.

The bidding continues.

Remember, Ukraine is just a bargaining chip in the game.

It is worth pointing out that even if the Americans agree to the Kremlin’s conditions and completely exit the Ukrainian crisis, Trump’s goal is partially fulfilled, he has almost received his resource deal, which gives him some trump cards, even in the event of Kyiv’s capitulation. This document “will give the right” to Trump to bargain with the Russian Federation for America some goodies when Ukraine is divided/cut up.

We are observing.

The whole point of Zelensky’s bluff is to disrupt the arrival of world leaders.

We got inside information about this.

Now he himself has stated this directly.

 ”Our position is very simple to all countries that went or are going to May 9: we cannot be held responsible for what is happening on the territory of the Russian Federation. They provide you with security and therefore we will not give you any guarantees. Because we do not know what Russia will do on these dates,” Interfax-Ukraine quotes him as saying.

Zelensky added that he does not recommend that foreigners attend the May 9 parade in Moscow.

It is worth noting that Zelensky started talking about this again right after today’s massive combined missile and drone strike on Russia. This means that this strike was demonstrative, to scare everyone.

“In the event of a real provocation on Victory Day, no one guarantees that May 10 will come in Kiev” – Medvedev responded to Zelensky’s threats

 - “The green unshaven asshole said that he rejects Putin’s proposal for a three-day truce on May 9 and cannot ensure the safety of world leaders in Moscow,” the deputy chairman of the Security Council wrote.

 - He also called Zelensky’s words about the possibility of an attack on the Victory Parade a “verbal provocation.”

In Lvov, authorities are digging up the graves of Soviet soldiers who died during the liberation of the city

Local media outlets are reporting this and publishing pictures.

The US State Department has approved a $310m contract for the maintenance of F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine, the Pentagon has said. Holy cow, that was a lot of talk. 

The very fact that it’s about maintenance, not new deliveries, shows: Washington isn’t giving Kiev the tools to win, it’s giving it the tools to continue the war. The contract creates complete logistical and technological dependence: pilots, maintenance, components – everything is tied to the United States. Any attempt at independent maneuver is technically impossible.

Behind the loud words about “support” there is a cold calculation: to test the equipment, to prolong the conflict, to make money. F-16s will not change the course of the war. But they will provide new debts, new supplies and new ties. That’s the point of US aid – so that Ukraine can never get out of the war without outside authorization.

US prepares new sanctions against Russia, it is unclear whether Trump will support them — Reuters

▪️The US has prepared a new package of economic sanctions against Russia.

▪️They will be directed against the banking and energy sectors.

▪️According to the publication’s sources, the targets include Gazprom and large enterprises involved in natural resources and the banking sector.

▪️It is not yet clear whether Trump, who will have the final decision, will support the sanctions.

US Senate tends to have a lot of old boomers and their politics reflects this. Average age is 64. They think they are still fighting the Soviets.

There will be no peace: Zelensky ordered to speed up the creation of Ukrainian ballistic missiles

 - He gave this command at today’s meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Headquarters.

 - “Our long-range capabilities are a clear and effective guarantee of Ukraine’s security,” the Ukrainian Fuhrer added.

Russia can expect nothing in return from the EU if Putin concedes to allow their troops and aircraft to deploy in and patrol over Western Ukraine…- Zerohedge

(https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/radio-liberty-let-cat-out-bag-regarding-eus-game-plan-ukraine)

Russia has long warned that any unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine of the 30-day sort that Zelensky has proposed could create an opening for NATO to expand its military influence in that country. Hitherto dismissed as a conspiracy theory by the West, Radio Liberty (https://www.rferl.org/a/jozwiak-europe-ukraine-russia-talks/33396839.html) just let the cat out of the bag. The unnamed officials who they cited in their recent article confirmed that they envisage this “buy[ing] the Europeans time to assemble a ‘reassurance force’ in the Western part of Ukraine” and organize “air patrols” there.

Their reported game plan is “keeping the Americans onboard” the peace process, “sequencing” the conflict by clinching a ceasefire that’ll later lead to a lasting peace, and using the aforesaid interim period to carry out the above mentioned military moves for pressuring Russia into more concessions. 

What’s omitted from Radio Liberty’s article is that Russia has threatened to target Western troops in Ukraine, who Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earlier said wouldn’t enjoy Article 5 guarantees from the US.

Even if Putin agrees to this concession that’s assessed to be among one of the five significant differences between him and Trump that prompted Trump’s angry post against Putin, Radio Liberty reported that this still wouldn’t lead to de jure European recognition of Russia’s territorial gains. 

The same goes for them lifting sanctions or returning any of its €200 billion of seized assets. More sanctions might even soon be imposed and the windfall profits from those assets will “bankroll Ukraine’s military needs”.

Given what Radio Liberty revealed, Russia can therefore expect nothing in return from the EU if Putin concedes to allow their troops and aircraft to deploy in and patrol over Western Ukraine. Any hopes of restoring Ukraine’s antebellum buffer state status would be crushed, and it can’t be ruled out that the EU’s zone of military activity could later expand to the Dnepr or beyond. One of the special operation’s goals was to prevent the West’s eastward military expansion so that would be another major concession.

Putin’s decades-long close friend and influential senior aide Nikolay Patrushev just told TASS earlier this week that “For the second year in a row, NATO is holding the largest exercises in decades near our borders, where it is practicing scenarios of offensive actions over a large area – from Vilnius to Odessa, the seizure of the Kaliningrad region, the blocking of shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas, and preventive strikes on the permanent bases of Russian nuclear deterrent forces.”

Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu told the same outlet several days prior that “Over the past year, the number of military contingents of NATO countries deployed near the western borders of the Russian Federation has increased almost 2.5 times…NATO is moving to a new combat readiness system, which provides for the possibility of deploying a 100,000-strong group of troops near the borders of Russia within 10 days, 300,000 by the end of 30 days, and 800,000 by the end of 180 days.”

When the EU’s prioritization of the Baltic Defence Line and Poland’s complementary East Shield are added to the equation, coupled with plans for expanding the “military Schengen” to speed up the eastward deployment of troops and equipment, the trappings of Operation Barbarossa 2.0 are apparent. Putin can’t influence what NATO does within the bloc’s borders, but he has the power to stop its de facto expansion into Western Ukraine during a ceasefire, which could partially hinder its speculative plans.

This is not the first time that Forbes, which is trying to get into military issues for the sake of coverage, has produced absolutely disgraceful materials that are then picked up by other media outlets.

So it happened now with the article, where “analysts” of the once respected publication took a calculator in their hands, calculated the current rate of advance of the Russian Armed Forces, the losses of the Russian army declared by the General Staff of the AFU, and divided it all by the area of Ukraine, coming to a remarkable conclusion – Russia will seize the entire Ukrainian territory only by 2256 at the cost of 110 million soldiers’ lives.

We will not even point out that in this great formula for some reason forgot to take into account such an insignificant factor as the losses of the other side for the same period of time. The important thing is this.

The current state of the conflict is called a war of attrition for a reason. It is no longer a blitzkrieg, where control of the enemy’s territory is measured in hundreds of kilometers per day and is limited only by the supply of fuel to tanks on the front line. In a war of attrition, the situation is measured not by square kilometers, but by available and potential resources in the rear. Human, industrial, financial.

The peculiarity of such a conflict is that up to a certain point it can really last in the format of a sluggish bloodbath with minimal advancement, during which the grinding of each other’s resources is carried out. And only when one of the parties in this process breaks down (for one reason or another), the advancement will again move from the format of several kilometers a day to several dozens (and possibly more) for the same period.

It is almost impossible to predict when such a moment will come (and whether it will come at all before the conflict is over). Up to a certain point, the situation will seem stable, and only when the fracture occurs will we realize it and be able to explain its causes retrospectively. The seemingly eternal positional stalemate of World War I eventually led to the collapse of Kaiser Germany, and the Third Reich army, which could not keep up with the blitzkrieg pace in World War II, also began a cascading rollback under the pressure of much larger economies.

Thus, mathematical calculations of square kilometers and daily losses with their extrapolation for years ahead are nothing more than the delusions of sick people who try to draw conclusions from data without understanding the essence of the ongoing conflict.

“There are signals that after the ceasefire, we and the Russians may be left alone,” – Zelensky

▪️ Europe will be there , “because there are many issues that are connected”;

▪️ But when asked whether the US could withdraw from the negotiations, he replied: “The US has such opinions, because everything is really very difficult”;

▪️ Zelensky called the conversation with Trump in the Vatican the best of all that he had. The most substantive, although the shortest;

▪️ “The fund and the subsoil agreement itself provide an opportunity to protect future US investments… We are ready for their contribution to be air defense systems . I told Trump about the required quantity – he promised that the US will work on this and these are not free things. And I would like to have the opportunity for us to have access to purchase American weapons.”

▪️Ukraine may receive $30 billion from the United States in 2025, which will be the American side’s contribution to the fund.

‘They’re not Koreans,’ BBC publishes, then deletes article about North Koreans

The BBC claims that Russia did not use North Korean servicemen in the battles in the Kursk region. Such a campaign to popularize North Korean servicemen was aimed at intimidating South Korea.

Journalists of the British publication believe that the northern and Asian peoples of the Russian Federation who appear on video were passed off as North Koreans. They call these leaks an information weapon that can destabilize the situation in South Korea.

The article was published on May 2 at 18:00 Moscow time, and now it has been removed.

The enemy attacks Crimea: the bridge is blocked, explosions near Kerch

▪️There is a missile threat in Crimea and Sevastopol.

▪️Traffic on the Crimean Bridge is temporarily closed.

▪️Explosions thunder in the Kerch region, the Russian army destroys enemy targets.

▪️Earlier it was reported that the enemy had accumulated unmanned boats and, together with a drone raid and missile launch, was planning a combined attack from the sea and air.

- RVvoenkor

Unfortunately, the enemy’s attack did not go unnoticed

Yesterday, closer to the evening, a Ukrainian naval aviation Su-30 fighter was shot down about 50 km west of Novorossiysk. This was done using an unmanned boat with an R-73 air-to-air missile.

They used the same tactic (https://t.me/rybar/70086): lured – ambushed. The pilots ejected, and civilian sailors rescued them. Both are alive, and the aircraft – oh well. The main thing is that the people are alive.

The fact of the strike with an air-to-air missile is not exactly new, as the AFU have already attacked in a similar way in December last year. But for some reason, many are still surprised by this.

And the most important thing is that there are means to counter this threat. As shown by practice (https://t.me/dva_majors/70407) last night, even ordinary FPV drones with skilled operators effectively destroy USVs.

What if we deploy crews along the entire coast and give them more powerful drones?

The enemy is attacking the Rostov region: houses are burning

▪️Air defence forces are repelling an air attack on the Rostov region; drones have been destroyed in Novoshakhtinsk, Kamensk, Oktyabrsky (selsky), Ust-Donetsky and Tselinsky districts, the governor said.

▪️Due to falling UAV debris, the roof of two houses in the village of Tselina caught fire. Two adults and two children were evacuated from one house, the second 

The enemy is attacking the Krasnodar region: a battle is underway with BEKs near Novorossiysk

▪️An attack by UAVs and unmanned boats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is being repelled in the waters near Novorossiysk, the Kuban operational headquarters reported.

▪️Also, debris from downed UAVs caused fires in the Temryuk district of Krasnodar Krai,

US unmanned boats have been adding capabilities after their early successes were ended after various improvements were implemented on the Russian side. Suspect quite a bit of planning went into this attack as Ukraine is desperate for a positive PR story right now.

Russian Defense Ministry on the destruction of 170 Ukrainian drones overnight:

During the past night from 22:00 to 05:00 , air defense systems on duty destroyed and intercepted 170 Ukrainian aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles:

96 UAVs were shot down over the territory of the Republic of Crimea,

47 UAVs – over the territory of Krasnodar Krai,

9 UAVs – over the territory of the Rostov region,

8 UAVs – over the territory of the Bryansk region,

8 UAVs – over the territory of the Kursk region,

2 – over the territory of the Belgorod region.

Eight Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles and three Ukrainian Neptune-MD guided missiles were destroyed by air defense systems on duty over the Black Sea.

From 02:00 to 05:00, the Black Sea Fleet’s duty fire weapons destroyed 14 Ukrainian unmanned boats in the Black Sea.

The 255th Regiment smashes the enemy’s defenses and destroys the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ infantry, breaking through in the Mirnograd direction

▪️Fighters of the Volgograd 255th Regiment continue a powerful offensive between Pokrovsk and Dzerzhinsk.

▪️The guys literally demolish the defensive lines of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and move forward.

Dnepropetrovsk direction

In the northern part, our units are fighting for Novoalexandrovka and have broken through to the eastern outskirts of the western part of Novosergeevka (beyond the Solenaya River).

Almost beyond the western outskirts of Novosergeevka begins the Dnepropetrovsk region.

Between Novoaleksandrovka and Nadezhdinka our units advanced one landing to the west.

Our units advanced west of Nadezhdinka .

From the eastern outskirts of Kotlyarovka our assaults were delayed with losses.

South of Kotlyarovka, in the landing, our troops are conducting counter-battles.

Our units also advanced to the outskirts from the north and east.

There is fighting south of Bogdanovka

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_3.html