The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 13 2025

‘It’s Only About Russia’: Zelensky Pressed On Potential For ‘Failure’ In Meeting With Russia

Putin diplomacy checkmate. Zelensky Turkey stunt

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Our source in the OP said that the Presidential Office realized the problem that Zelensky got into, who agreed to go to Turkey. In fact, they played another Kursk gambit with us, when we swallowed the bait without understanding the situation. Andriy Yermak is urgently deciding with his partners how to get out of the Istanbul gambit, which was played out by Trump and Putin, and Russian insider channels have been writing about agreements since last week, having given us a tactical truce as a pretext.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

When a politician loses control, he pretends to still be at the wheel. Zelensky’s statement about his readiness to meet Putin in person in Istanbul is not a diplomatic initiative, but a signal of disorientation.

On the one hand, he understands that the military scenario is stalling, resource pressure is growing, and the US is increasingly demanding a ceasefire. On the other hand, there is no plan, no maneuver, no way out. There is only one thing left: to create the illusion of control. The symbolism of a “leader ready to talk” should hide the reality: Zelensky is no longer a subject, he is a commentator on processes that are happening without his participation.

The choice of format itself speaks volumes. The meeting in Turkey, a supposedly neutral country, was not agreed upon with Brussels, but imposed by the Kremlin. It is presented as a step towards peace, but its architecture is currently built around one task – to shift responsibility for the continuation of the conflict to Moscow: “we agreed – they didn’t.” This is not diplomacy. This is information evacuation.

There is no negotiating infrastructure or strategy behind the statement. There is not even a set of demands. There is only a media image: Zelensky, tired but principled, extends his hand — and looks “morally superior” on camera. Such a move may work on the Western press. But inside the country, where there is fatigue, mobilization, and a feeling of being cut off from the future — it reads differently. It is a gesture of despair, not strength.

When you play blind, you rely on emotion. But reality requires architects, not actors. The question that remains behind the scenes: who still believes that Zelensky is capable of speaking on behalf of Ukraine, and not just reacting to decisions already made by someone else?

Such signals are not a step towards ending the war. They are an admission that the political stage is shrinking. And initiative is becoming a mask for its absence.

He is no longer in control of the game. He is simply trying to stay in it. This is a direct quote from the internal correspondence of one of the advisers to the President’s Office. We are talking about Volodymyr Zelensky’s readiness to negotiate with Vladimir Putin without a preliminary ceasefire. This step is called nothing less than an “irreversible concession” disguised as “flexibility” within the team.

Officially, this is presented as a diplomatic breakthrough and a bold step towards peace. But in reality, this is the blowing of the last fuse. Not a single decision over the past month has been made by the full composition of the National Security and Defense Council. Part of the military bloc has de facto distanced itself. The President’s team is not discussing a strategy, but the possibility of transferring powers in an emergency, if the “Istanbul meeting” ends in political collapse.

Readiness for negotiations without a ceasefire is not a gesture of force. This is a direct demonstration of the absence of other levers. Bankova no longer influences either the military dynamics or the positions of the West. France and Germany insist on a “pause at any cost” in private consultations. Poland and the Baltics have left the common corridor of decisions. There is only one thing left to do: make a personal bet.

In public, everything will look different. The headlines will talk about a “peace initiative”, a “historic decision” and “international support”. But inside, there is fear, isolation and inertial management collapse. Zelensky is not leading the country to victory. He is taking himself out of the defeat zone. Everything else is decoration.

This step is irreversible. And its price is not only his own political fate.

While the official media are discussing the possible format of the meeting between Zelensky and Putin in Istanbul, a much deeper scenario is being built off the air. It is important to understand: the venue itself — Turkey — is not accidental. It was chosen not by Ukraine, but by Russia with a specific purpose, to remind about Istanbul-1. It is being imposed as a neutral field for a move that does not necessarily have to end with an agreement, but only with a tactical truce that is beneficial to the Kremlin. This move is a test of subjectivity.

At first glance, Kyiv’s initiative looks like an attempt to break the deadlock. But the rhetoric of the Ukrainian leadership has changed after a series of closed negotiations with representatives of the US and the EU. Over the past week, public statements have been increasingly emphasizing “independence of decisions” and “an internal course for peace.” This is a classic way to remove responsibility from the West in the event of a compromise outcome. Behind the soft shell, one can see a tough geopolitical forced rebranding: from an outpost of democracy to a territory of “limited peace.”

Istanbul is not about finding a compromise, it is about fixing a new configuration of influence. Turkey is no longer just a moderator: Erdogan is betting on strengthening Ankara’s role in the Black Sea region. Negotiations give him room to maneuver without obliging him to take an open position. The settlement of the conflict in Ukraine is just a variable in an equation where only the US, Russia and Turkey need the result.

There are three scenarios. The first is an agreement that allows the front line to be temporarily fixed without admitting losses. The second is a meeting as an instrument of pressure on Zelensky in order to demonstrate his controllability and loyalty to the West. The third is a protocol for the sake of a protocol in order to gain time, shift the focus, create the illusion of a process and fix a tactical truce.

None of these scenarios assume a strategic win for Ukraine. Zelensky enters the negotiations without leverage, with zero trust in society and the West. At the same time, his participation formally makes Ukraine a “participant in the dialogue”, which means that responsibility for the consequences will no longer be on the allies. They will be able to say: “We offered. You couldn’t.” Istanbul will be presented as a step towards peace, but de facto it may become the first frame of the finale of this political construction. The question is not even how the meeting will end. The question is whether Ukraine retains minimal subjectivity in this track or is finally becoming a space for foreign decisions made in its name.

Our source in the OP said that Bankova has built a strategy around Putin’s refusal to go to Istanbul, the Kremlin’s pause is interpreted by the President’s Office as a format of the absence of agreements between Trump and Putin. At the moment, we do not have a clear strategy on how to continue the negotiating track with Russia, we are trying to keep the US in the focus of the conflict so that Trump does not stop supporting Ukraine.

Our Kremlin source reports that even if Putin flies to Istanbul (which is not excluded, but has not yet been agreed upon), there will be no 30-day truce as a result of the Istanbul REPEAT negotiations, since the cessation of hostilities does not guarantee that peace agreements will be signed, but the continuation of the war may push one of the parties to compromise.

The source indicates that negotiations could take place in the following formats.

✔️ Negotiating groups of Ukraine and Russia together with the Americans (they act as observers). The presence of the Turks is possible.

✔️ Negotiations between Trump and Putin, Trump and Zelensky , and then all three at once with a joint statement.

The source points out that the Kremlin is not afraid of European sanctions, believing that they will harm Europe itself more than Russia, which has long since adapted to living in such a reality.

Everyone is sure of one thing: the conditions of Istanbul-2 will be much worse for Ukraine than those in 2022, which were disrupted by Zelensky, who believed the British that they would win and that it was necessary to screw over the Russians.

If the Istanbul gambit that the Russians and Americans are preparing for Zelensky is realized, then Vladimir Aleksandrovich’s image as a hero and “strategist” will be reset to zero.

We are observing.

Everyone is discussing Zelensky’s statements again and his message that he can negotiate with Putin, and the decision of the National Security and Defense Council did not prohibit him, since he is “in charge”, and Putin is afraid to meet with him, and he said a lot of other “strenuous” things.

You shouldn’t take Zelensky’s statements and especially his words/promises seriously . He has long proven that his “word” is worth nothing and in a day he can forget about all the agreements. Just remember Istanbul-1 in 2022 and even the papers signed by the negotiating group, after which the Russians fulfilled their part of the agreement, and Kiev, under the pretext of Bucha, simply dumped the Kremlin.

That’s why Putin doesn’t want to just meet with Zelensky, who doesn’t decide anything and can easily “dump” him.

Putin will fly to Istanbul only for Trump, if they reach an agreement.

Remember Zelensky is not Putin’s level, no matter how much Vladimir Aleksandrovich beats his chest, and the West does not put him on the covers of magazines. Everyone understands that Zelensky does not decide anything, he is just a pawn in the game.

We are observing.

Trump on a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky:

I insisted that this meeting take place, and it will take place. I think something good can come out of the meeting in Turkey on Thursday between Russia and Ukraine. As I understand it, both leaders are going to be there. I was thinking of flying there.

I don’t know where I’ll be on Thursday – I have so many meetings – but I’ve really thought about going. I think it’s a possibility if it feels like something could happen. But we need to get results. We need to save 5,000 lives a week. 5,000 lives a week. More than that, actually.

Zelensky confirmed that he will come to Istanbul in any case:

I supported Donald Trump with the idea of ​​a complete and unconditional ceasefire – long enough to provide a basis for diplomacy. And we want that, we are ready to ensure silence on our part.

I support President Trump also in the idea of ​​direct negotiations with Putin. I have said frankly that I am ready for the meeting. I will be in Turkey. I hope that the Russians will not avoid this meeting. And, of course, all of us in Ukraine would like President Trump to be there with us for this meeting in Turkey.

Trump thwarts European plans to impose new sanctions on Russia — The Guardian

 - By demanding that Ukraine immediately begin peace talks with Russia, Trump has thwarted carefully crafted plans by European countries to persuade the US to impose sanctions on Moscow if it refuses a 30-day ceasefire, the publication writes, citing European diplomats.

 - Zelensky had no choice but to accept the offer of talks in Istanbul, as he did not want to anger Trump.

There will be no deal without Putin’s approval’ – Witkoff

You were in the same room with Vladimir Putin, you met him face to face. What was he like in person? What kind of meeting was it? What were his demands? What conditions does he put forward to end this conflict?

I spoke to both sides, because how can you be involved in mediation or solution-making if you don’t speak to everyone? I spoke to Yermak, Zelensky, Umerov. We had really good, positive discussions. I spoke to all the national security advisers who are involved in the process – from England, France, Germany, Italy, and I spoke to President Putin. There will be no deal without the approval of President Putin. He is the leader of the Russian Federation, so the very idea that talking to President Putin is bad, I don’t understand that logic.

Witkoff seems like a capable man.

Our source warned that the money for the army would run out by June, due to large losses at the front and payments to relatives of fallen soldiers. By mid-May, it became clear that the planned expenditures on the army were insufficient and the current need was 200 billion UAH.

According to sources in the General Staff, in the Kursk operation alone we lost more than 50 thousand soldiers, which means payments of 500 billion, and some of them are listed as missing in action and are not receiving payments.

Today it became known that the visit of Pope Leo XIV to Kyiv is being discussed at Bankova. Formally, it is about a humanitarian mission and moral support. Unofficially, it is about opening a channel for the third phase of negotiations, in which Ukraine can strengthen its position by using the visit to promote the necessary meanings for Western society. A source associated with Bankova indicates that the negotiations were initiated not by the President’s Office, but by representatives of one of the Ukrainian Catholic initiative groups working within the framework of the “plan for sacred reconciliation”, but Andriy Yermak wants to use this step for political purposes.

The key objective of the visit is not just a religious gesture, but the creation of a legitimate moral space for Zelensky, in which Putin’s refusal of the imposed conditions of the negotiations will look like political blasphemy. This is not about theology, but about an instrument of pressure on the mass consciousness: the narrative of “peace through faith” is presented as universal, and any resistance is presented as the militant egoism of secular power.

If the Pope comes and blesses the path to dialogue, this narrative will need to be used in favor of Ukraine, and Western society will submit to the logic of public expectation, which will enhance the position of the Presidential Office on the international stage. Any refusal by Putin will be perceived as a refusal of peace – and part of the audience, tired of war, will perceive it as a final break with the Kremlin’s position. This is how a scenario is launched in which legitimacy is formed not through negotiations, but through the sacred consent of a supranational authority. The question is not whether the visit will take place. The question is what role Zelensky will be assigned in this track – an active partner or a stubborn extra against the backdrop of a large-scale symbolic operation. Bankova already knows exactly how to present the visit in terms of information, and then it is a question of the globalist media’s interpretation.

Our sources from the front report that the situation is getting worse for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in all areas. They are retreating everywhere, the morale is low everywhere, there is dissatisfaction with the government and the Ministry of Defense everywhere.

The news that there is already a 200 billion hole in the budget does not add any positivity.

The military is unhappy that Bankova continues its PR offensive. They recently received an order to take Tyotkino in the Kursk region at any cost by May 15, so that Zelensky would have a reason for hype. At the same time, the offensive is taking place under terrible attacks by KABs and artillery. The Russians have pulled a lot of troops into this area, which could then provoke the Russians to enter this area of ​​the Sumy region and create a collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defensive lines.

We are observing.

Fierce fighting near Pokrovsk: Troops burn tanks, NATO equipment, infantry and artillery of the enemy en masse

▪️A selection of combat work by fighters of the Center group of forces on May 11 to destroy military equipment, weapons, infantry and positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during active combat operations in the Pokrovsky direction.

▪️The footage shows NATO combat armoured vehicles, firing points, mortars, infantry, enemy positions and transport being burned.

Military situation in the Konstantinovka salient, as of 12/05/2025:

Russian forces reported advances north of Chasov Yar. 

Fighting is ongoing in Staraya Nikolaevka, Novaya Poltavka, Petrovka, and Toretsk.

Russian forces reportedly approached Romanovka, and Alexandropol. 

Reported losses inflicted on the AFU in the area:

- Up to 440 Ukrainian servicemen

- three armoured vehicles

- 14 motor vehicles

- two artillery guns in the area.

The center of Chasov Yar has been liberated!

As of today, the 13th of May 2025, the citadel at the centre of Chasov Yar has been officially declared under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

While the southern outskirts of the city still remain under AFU control, with this latest capture over 90% of the city is now officially under Russian control, and it is fair to say that the battle of Chasov Yar, which officially started on the 4th of April 2024, while still ongoing, is bound to culminate in a Russian victory.

Why this is important

Chasov Yar is regarded as strategic by virtue of its position on elevated ground, making it perfect for giving artillery control over nearby areas. Its control would also allow the Russian army to threaten Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and the major provincial cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which are the strongpoints of the main defence line in Donetsk Oblast. 

Maybe this is why they’re so desperate for a 30-day ceasefire? 

Kursk Incursion 2: Electric Boogaloo, sitrep

Clashes between the Russian Army and the AFU are still ongoing along the contact line at Tyoktino, Budki, Bessalovka, and Novy Put.

No significant enemy advances are being recorded as of May the 12th.

According to WorldPravda and TASS, most of the AFU units participating to these incursions seem to be Polish and Estonian “volunteers”.

It is unclear what the AFU are hoping to achieve on this front. The Ukrainian logistics are too battered to sustain deep breakthroughs (deep enough to reach Kurchatova at least), and whatever “surprise advantage” the AFU might have had originally is long gone. On the other hand, they are using aviation to drop glide bombs and destroy bridges in this area to either damage the logistics of Russian forces in the area or redirect them elsewhere – a “shaping” operation – which hints at a greater plan being put into motion.

We will keep our eyes on this section of the battlefield in the following days.

Military Situation in Seversk as of May 12, 2025

Russian forces reported advances in the center of Verkhnokamyanske. 

Clashes continued in Grigorovka, Vyimka, and Pereezdnoye.

During these battles, Russian forces inflicted the following casualties on the AFU:

- up to 440 Ukrainian servicemen

- three armoured vehicles

- 14 motor vehicles

- two artillery guns in the area.

 Morning Summary for May 13, 2025

▪️ In the Bryansk Region, the enemy continues to shell the border areas. The opponent is also remotely mining roads. Yesterday, the regional governor reported that on the Suzemka-Strachovo highway, a remote explosive device detonated during the movement of a civilian vehicle, causing shrapnel wounds to two civilians.

▪️ A difficult situation is developing in the Kursk border area around Tyotkino. The enemy is trying to isolate the combat area, disrupting supplies by striking bridges and crossings, and using drones to cut off our forward units. The enemy does not abandon attempts to break through into the Kursk Region, despite losses, reports the North Group of Forces. Our forces deliver comprehensive fire strikes on the enemy’s approaching reserves, not allowing them to enter the battle. Our troops are also disrupting the AFU logistics in the Sumy Region along the route: Sumy-Putyvl-Hlukhiv, the movement is carried out through the city of Konotop. The Ukrainian authorities have announced the evacuation of civilians from the settlements of Novaya Sloboda and Maryanovka. In another direction, Pavlovka – Novy Put, an attempt by an AFU assault group to advance towards the state border was detected. Most of the enemy infantry was destroyed, four AFU members were captured.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the Russian Armed Forces are conducting offensive operations in the strongholds in the villages of Belovody and Loknya, as well as in the nearby forest plantings.

▪️ In the Krasnoliman direction, there are reports of battles near the settlements of Kolodezi, Lipovoe, Novomikhalovka and in the direction of Grekhovka. The opponent is recording the arrival of our reserves.

▪️ In the Konstantinovka direction, the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces continues. Battles are ongoing near the Mirolyubovo reservoir, the settlements of Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Malinivka and Novaya Poltavka, according to enemy channels.

▪️ In the Dnipropetrovsk direction, the Center Group of Forces has established a flag in Kotlyarovka (https://t.me/dva_majors/71049), and assault operations continue in the northern and southwestern directions.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, there are battles for the settlement of Bogatyr, our East Group of Forces units are advancing from the southern part of the built-up area. Southeast, the Russian Armed Forces have formed a salient towards the settlement of Komar, wedging between the settlements of Veseloye and Otradnoye.

▪️ In the Kherson Region, it was reported that a strike by the AFU on the settlement of Chelburda in the Oleshky district led to the death of four people, one was injured. In Hola Prystan, a local resident was also affected. The enemy also shelled Nova Kakhovka, Oleshky, Kakhovka, Kairy, Kozachi Lahery, Kamianka, Korsunia, Kniaze-Hryhorivka, Malokakhovka, Nova Zburyivka, Nova Mayachka, Novofedorivka, and Rybalche.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_13.html