The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 15 2025

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Kremlin: Putin currently has no plans to go to Istanbul for talks

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Risk of encirclement of AFU south of Toretsk | Multiple advances on the Lyman-Torersk fronts

The start of negotiations is delayed.

According to rumors, the Ukrainian side is looking for an opportunity to disrupt the meeting, but to blame the Kremlin for this. Zelensky does not want to start new negotiations in the same place where there were already negotiations, which he disrupted in 2022.

Ukraine is currently consulting with its partners/globalists on how best to pull off a feint, disrupting the negotiations, and in general, how to act.

The start of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul is expected after lunch, Russian media report.

Perhaps they will start after the meeting between Zelensky and Erdogan, and perhaps not.

We are observing.

Our source in the delegation in Turkey said that the Trump Administration continues to insist on negotiations with the Russian delegation, otherwise they promise to leave the track of conflict resolution in Ukraine. Andriy Yermak is currently negotiating with partners to develop a position and resolve the situation, we have not yet refused the meeting, but by delaying it we hope that the Russians will leave themselves.

Andriy Yermak decided to simply disrupt the negotiation process in order to get out of Putin’s Istanbul gambit and not even begin the process of conflict resolution, but at the same time Ukraine’s position would be seriously shaken. It is one thing to refuse the Kremlin’s conditions, and another to ignore the meeting altogether.

Western partners advised Zelensky to send negotiators to Istanbul despite Putin’s absence from the Russian delegation, The Washington Post has found out.

“Even if others sent a low-level delegation, many are telling the Ukrainians: just go. Come, show that you are not blocking anything,” said a Western diplomat on condition of anonymity.

In a post on the X platform, Zelensky thanked Erdogan and accused Russia of disrespect.

“Today, Russia has once again demonstrated that it has no intention of ending the war by sending a rather low-level delegation.

Moreover, such an approach by Russia is a manifestation of disrespect – to the world and to all partners. We expect a clear and decisive response from partners.”

Zelensky said that he and Erdogan discussed security guarantees, monitoring the ceasefire, demining, the restoration of Ukraine and the development of partnership between the states.

Zelensky will not be able to drag out the war indefinitely. He is literally being dragged by the scruff of the neck to negotiations in the format of a new Istanbul – the same one he abandoned two years ago, when it was still possible to save both territory and lives. Returning to Istanbul now is not diplomacy, but an admission of failure. Symbolically, this means that all the victims, destruction and mobilization were in vain.

The Istanbul conditions of 2022 envisaged the preservation of two regions, the Zaporizhia NPP, energy and infrastructure. Today, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing at such a pace that there are only a few meters left to the Dnipropetrovsk region, and the future of the Sumy region is in great question. That is, the longer Bankova delays the decision, the less there will be to negotiate at all – while Zelensky continues to fantasize about the “borders of 1991″, the front is inexorably moving deeper.

The world is already trying to stop this conflict – but Bankova is resisting, hoping for a miracle (in the person of European empty talkers, apparently), which will not happen. Zelensky will be squeezed, the only question is when and with what consequences. Therefore, now the task of every Ukrainian is to save his life, avoiding getting into the “meat grinder” at the front.

Our source in the delegation in Turkey said that the Head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Sybiga received clear demands from the Trump Administration during negotiations with the US Secretary of State Rubio to hold negotiations with Russia on all points. For Ukraine, only a 30-day ceasefire is important, but it will only work in a complex and this is what the Trump Administration insists on.

According to our information, partners suggested Andriy Yermak to disrupt the negotiating track by any means so that sanctions could be imposed and a new escalation against Russia could begin, which they would try to drag Trump into. The negotiating case is becoming a stadium-style show, but Zelensky may not become the main actor, but fit into a clear plan of the Trump Administration, which forced the President of Ukraine to go to Istanbul.

ZeRada1

Colleagues, the problem is that the trap for Trump could turn into the Istanbul Gambit, when the President’s Office organizes a meeting between Trump and Putin under the guise of negotiations on Ukraine. Bankova is accustomed to emotional diplomacy, but the world has changed dramatically and now the game is played by different rules, which our functionaries cannot understand.

ZeRada1

US and EU pressured Zelensky to negotiate with Russia — Washington Post

 - According to Western diplomats, Zelensky did not want to send a delegation to Istanbul at all and planned to cut off contacts with Russia

 - He was persuaded by Trump’s envoy Witkoff, who said that if “they come and Russia doesn’t, Moscow will look bad and suffer the consequences.”

 - It is also emphasized again that Trump has disrupted the West’s introduction of sanctions against Russia.

 - “There was coordination with the Americans on sanctions, and there were good signals. But ultimately, it all depends on [Trump's] mood,” the European official said.

Medinsky – about Ukraine and its “friends”:

We understand that one of the decision-making centers [for Ukraine] is their Western friends.

Although what kind of friends are they? They have such friends that they don’t need enemies.

Knowing history, I do not doubt for a second that Poland will bite off the Western Ukrainian lands from Ukraine’s friend at the first opportunity. 

There is also a historical precedent for this. In 1938, when Czechoslovakia was being divided, it had a great friend in Poland. Instead of defending Czechoslovakia as an ally, Poland immediately bit off the Teschen region from it under the cover of noise.

Even Churchill was a little freaked out by this and called Poland the main hyena of Europe. The mistakes that leaders make, sometimes sincerely in the heat of emotion, sometimes under pressure from such friends and allies, they made ordinary people and nations pay a high price.

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak, together with Britain, is pushing for the format of Ukraine’s admission to NATO by the main European countries, which were against it last year – France and Germany. Merz, in a dialogue with Zelensky, said that he is ready to raise this issue if the conflict in Ukraine escalates.

Effective security guarantees for Ukraine will drag the West into a potential war with Russia, while ineffective ones will leave Ukraine without protection — Reuters

 - This is the main problem of a possible peace agreement on Ukraine, the publication writes.

 - Under the failed 2022 deal, Ukraine agreed to permanent neutrality in exchange for security guarantees, but officials in Kiev now say abandoning NATO membership has become a “red line.”

Colleagues, you are right that if the Ukrainian delegation does not come even formally to the negotiations under any pretext (low composition, no Putin, etc.), then Trump will have a window of opportunity to leave the game and then the escalation will begin. Of course, it is not a fact that Trump will leave the game, for example, they can play out a scenario of mutual sanctions. The US will impose sanctions against the Kremlin and against the OP. For the Kremlin, sanctions are nothing to worry about, but for the OP – this is a “collapse”.

As our source adds, Zelensky is simply afraid that having come to any formal direct negotiations of the parties in Istanbul, he will not be able to jump out of them, even if the parties cannot agree now. The Kremlin will always set a date for new negotiations and the Ukrainian delegation will have to fly, otherwise the scenario with the “window of opportunity” for Trump will be activated.

In short, the situation is deplorable. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have very poor results at the front and they will not get better without huge infusions of money from the West and a new wave of mobilization.

Our source reports that a personal meeting between Putin and Trump is being prepared. Perhaps before that there will be a telephone conversation between the two leaders.

The Istanbul gambit planned by the Kremlin and the White House for the Office of the President/globalists is gradually being implemented.

Zelensky, together with his “partners”, is looking for the most alternative way out of the trap (the Istanbul gambit).

About the negotiations in Istanbul.

The events scheduled for May 15 are not an attempt to reach an agreement, but rather a test of the adequacy of the characters under scrutiny. A kind of test to see whether there is any subjectivity left on the Ukrainian side, or whether everything has finally been reduced to a controlled puppet, which even the negotiations are allowed to take place strictly on a whistle.

Russia has proposed a dialog without conditions. Just a direct meeting of the delegations to tell each other to each other’s faces as it is. 

The Russian side is not expected to change its position in principle in three years. All the main demands were voiced back in 2022. 

The composition of the Russian group is strong and actually speaks for itself: Medinsky (negotiator in 2022), Kostyukov (head of the GRU), Fomin and Zorin (an experienced negotiator since Syria) from the Defense Ministry and Galuzin from the Foreign Ministry – a full-fledged interdepartmental team capable of quickly explaining all of the layouts to even the smallest of people.

This is the format of real negotiations, when people come to work.

But the key problem is not in the Russian Federation. It is in those who will be on the other side of the table. Ukraine is not just weak, it is dependent. Completely. These are the same figures who in 2022 have already agreed, already almost signed the document – the same people who came out with a press release under the dictation of London: “let’s just go to war”.

So there are no illusions. The Russian negotiators are traveling not only with faith in progress, but also with readiness to put on paper the obvious: Ukraine is not ready to negotiate. Neither in form nor in substance. And if there is a glimpse of rationality somewhere, it means that the curators have put on the brakes. But this is no longer a conversation with Ukraine.

So we can call it a “diplomatic chance” only out of politeness. In fact, this is a control MRI to Ukraine’s brains, where it will be clearly visible: who is ready to solve the issues, and who is still pretending to be a state, receiving instructions from abroad.

Military Chronicle 

The Istanbul talks failed for Kiev before they even started…

Official Kiev has already understood that the EU plan and the “delays”, even despite its hidden support from Beijing and Brazil (whom our president very beautifully and diplomatically brushed off yesterday, making it clear that there is no need to interfere in this and try to persuade him to do something that he does not intend to do) to “force Putin” to conduct full-fledged negotiations with Kiev has completely failed, and they have turned on their anti-crisis ( to get out of the problem with minimal losses ).

That is why they announced in the morning that they are only ready to discuss with Moscow a “30-day” truce and nothing more.

We, in turn, have already made it clear that we are ready to discuss only the terms of peace based on the previously adopted agreements of 2022, taking into account the changes over the past three years.

That is, it can already be stated that the so-called “Istanbul summit”, on which many people had placed their hopes and at which they would have tried to bend Russia, has finally failed.

And so all eyes are on the front. That is where the future of Russia and Ukraine (and any future real negotiations) will be decided.

Ukrainian authorities have announced an urgent evacuation in Druzhkovka and Liman, where Russian troops are approaching

“Having flown out of the Kursk region, they tried to get in again,” the head of the Akhmat special forces, Apti Alaudinov, commented on the situation in the border regions.

According to him, the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered huge losses in the operation and can no longer conduct large-scale military operations.

“The world will soon hear peace agreements. The enemy is no longer capable of waging a large-scale war against us. If it were up to the Ukrainian people, they would surrender and not continue the war,” Lieutenant General Alaudinov told the online publication Kurskie Novosti.

At the same time, the Belgorod region, according to the commander, is “on lock down,” and the units of the Ministry of Defense are carrying out the tasks assigned to them.

IABelRu

Military Situation in Ukraine, Pokrovsk-Mirnograd salient, as of 14/05/2025:

Russian forces took control of Mikhailovka.

Russian forces advanced north of Aleksandropol. Further directions were reported in the direction of Zarya, and north of Novoolenovka.

There are ongoing clashes in Staraya Nikolaevka, Novaya Poltavka, Romanovka, Petrovka, and north of Toretsk. 

The fighting resulted in the denazification of up to 525 servicemen, 11 pickup trucks, and two artillery guns in the area.

Massive complaints have begun from the Ukrainian side about the targeted destruction of drone aircraft near Pokrovsk.

The Ukrainians themselves write that Russian operational-tactical aviation is using FABs by the dozens, without any restrictions, literally burning out frontline control centers and position areas of UAV operators.

Some UAV units are destroyed in the very first hours after entering the position, which confirms the long-standing thesis that the Ukrainian drone operator is a disposable, expensive and extremely vulnerable unit, with a life cycle of several days and sometimes even hours.

In parallel, the same sources note that the Russian Armed Forces’ FPV drones now operate consistently at ranges of 15-20 and in some cases 30-35 kilometers, which used to be considered a rarity. Now it is the norm. Strikes are carried out not only on the front line, but also on preparation, evacuation and ammunition delivery points. And if the target is fat, the “Geranium” arrives, killing the object at tactical depth.

Judging by the feedback from the receiving side, this is an extremely effective strategy, because the drones themselves do not pose a threat – it is the “eye-brain-hands” link that poses the threat. And that’s what is being systematically demolished by the enemy’s aviation and other means of destruction.

Military Chronicle 

Volnoye Pole liberated by Russian Army

 - During the offensive in the South Donetsk direction , the 5th Army of the “East” group of forces liberated the village of Volnoye Pole.

 - Control was established over a fortified defense area more than 1 km deep and up to 2 km along the front, which was the outermost outpost in front of the village of Shevchenko.

 - Our fighters installed Russian flags in different parts of the settlement.

 - Far Easterners are consolidating their positions.

 - As a result of fierce fighting , more than 230 buildings were cleared , up to a company of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed.

Morning Summary for May 15, 2025

▪️ Overnight, an enemy drone attack was repelled in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Region.

▪️ Enemy monitoring channels reported explosions in Volyn, Khmilnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Ternopil, Kharkiv and Sumy Regions. Our Geran UAVs were at work.

▪️ In Bryansk Region, the AFU attacked the border village of Kamenskiy Khutor in Klimovo District with kamikaze drones, injuring three civilians.

▪️ On the Kursk section of the border, intense fighting continues in Tetkinо, with both sides exchanging heavy fire and trying to take full control of each other’s supply routes. A “fire brigade” in the form of the Aida group has arrived in the area. Attempts by the enemy to cross the border were also reported from the direction of Novy Put.

▪️ In Sumy Region, the Russian forces are advancing from Zhuravka and storming Belovody, also trying to push towards Vodolagi.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, the AFU continued to terrorize the civilian population with drone strikes. In Oktyabr’skiy, a FPV drone detonated on an agricultural enterprise, injuring an employee. In Rozhdestveno, a truck was attacked by a drone, injuring two. A man walking on the roadside near Arkhangel’skoye-Nekhoteyevka was attacked by a drone. A man was injured in the shelling of Novaya Tavolzhanka. In Rovenki, a civilian was wounded by an AFU drone strike. A man sought treatment in Shebekino Central District Hospital after being injured in Murom.

▪️ Ukrainian authorities have announced an urgent evacuation of Krasny Liman, as the front is approaching from the direction of Kirovsk (Zarechnoye), where our forces are pounding AFU positions with heavy aerial bombs.

▪️ North of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), the Russian forces continue the assault in the area of the First and Second Dyleyev ponds, using the Berёzka children’s camp as a bridgehead.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, fighting continues in the Malinivka and Mirnoye area. The Russian MoD reported the liberation of Mikhailovka on the way to Mirnograd.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian forces are fighting for the village of Bogatyr’, an important enemy defense hub.

▪️ In Zaporizhia Region, the enemy attacked the administration building in Kamyanka-Dniprovska with drones, injuring two staff members. At least 8 artillery rounds also hit the city.

▪️ In the DPR, a woman was wounded by enemy artillery fire in Horlivka. In Makiivka (Sovetskiy district), a teenage girl born in 2011 was injured in a kamikaze drone attack.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_15.html