Trump Trade War Results In Record $12 Billion Surge In Customs Revenues

Sometimes, especially when stocks are tumbling, bond yields are soaring and the dollar looks like it is about to lose its reserve currency (and be replaced by what: the yuan? the euro? the turkish lira?), it is easy to forget what is the driving motive behind Trump’s trade war. And in a nutshell, it is this chart: US debt which at $37 trillion is unsustainable, and which is growing at a pace which everyone – not just the bipartisan CBO, but also the Fed, the IMF, Elon Musk, the shoeshine boy, literally everyone – knows for a fact is catastrophically unsustainable.

But while everyone knows something has to be done to avoid a devastating catastrophe, until Trump came along nobody would dare do a thing to change the current status quo for the obvious abovementioned reasons: any attempt to restructure or even modestly adjust US debt-funded “growth”, which transforms roughly $1 trillion of debt every 100 days into less than $200 billion of economic output…

… would lead to tumbling stocks, soaring bond yields and the dollar trading like it’s the Turkish lira. Kinda like right now.

But the US had to start somewhere, and Trump did that amid the now familiar howls of terror from market participants (how dare Trump do something that trades long-term viability for short-term pain), the co-opted mainstream media and of course establishment economists, all of whom agree something must be done… just not this and not now.

Still, with nothing to lose, the 2nd term president has started off on a path of doing something, and while nobody knows where and how it all ends, we have some good news: it is starting to bear fruit, in the form of a huge surge in customs revenues.

According to today’s Daily Treasury Statement, on April 22, the US collected a record $11.7 billion in “customs and certain excise taxes”…

… the biggest one day haul on record. To be sure, this is not a “one-day collection”, but rather is a monthly accrual and is more indicative of the monthly total (which stands at about $15.4 billion).

But hHowever one looks at it, the amount is certainly impressive and is double the previously monthly total, and about six times greater than the pre-Trump 1.0 monthly total in the $2BN ballpark. And this is just the start: once more layered tariffs start being collected, the monthly customs revenue will double again, rising to $25bn, $30bn, and so on… numbers which start to matter in the grand scheme of things.

In other words, while one can rage against Trump’s policies and mean tweets, he is the only one who is doing something to prevent an outcome which everyone agrees will be catastrophic… but because it is “some time in the future” as opposed to pain right now, everyone would much rather have the next generation of Americans foot the bill and deal with the catastrophic fallout. Or, one can do something about it, and while it will take much, much more than even the above stunning doubling in customs collections, the chart above represents what America has long needed: a painful start in the right – and sustainable – direction.