It’s Donald Trump’s Economy Now

Authored by William Galston via RealClearPolitics,

When the Commerce Department released a report on April 30 showing that the economy had shrunk during the first quarter of 2025 – the first such decline since 2022 – President Donald Trump was quick to respond. “This is Biden,” he said, adding that “You could even say that the next quarter is sort of Biden [too].” Later that day, he told a group of corporate executives that “This is Biden’s economy.” He capped his day by posting on Truth Social that “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s.”

By the end of the week, the president had refined his message. When asked about responsibility for the economy during an interview on NBC’s Meet the Press, he stated that “The good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy.”

But do the American people agree with President Trump? According to recent public opinion surveys, the answer is No. Specifically:

Gallup asked a random sample of Americans, “Who do you think is more responsible for the current state of the U.S. economy?” Forty-six percent said Trump (up from 43% in March), compared to 27% for Biden, while 21% said that they were equally responsible. Although Democrats and Republicans mostly responded along party lines, independents assigned principal responsibility to Trump rather than Biden by a margin of 43% to 24%.

A Morning Consult survey released on May 6 underscored the rapid shift of economic responsibility from Biden to Trump. “A slim majority of voters (53%) say current economic conditions are mostly the result of Trump’s policies, up from 46% in March and 39% in February, when voters were more willing to give the current president the benefit of the doubt,” the authors of the survey wrote.

Two recent surveys allow us to see how different groups view the question of Trump’s responsibility for the economy. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll asked a sample of Americans whether current economic conditions are “mostly something President Trump inherited” or “mostly a result of President Trump’s own policies.” 39% chose the former statement, compared to 60% who selected the latter. Among key groups that moved toward Trump in the 2024 election, sentiments among Independents were divided 39-61; among young adults ages 18-29, 34-66; among Hispanics, 32-68. Not surprisingly, a strong majority of Americans-56%–disapproved of his handling of the economy, compared to 40% who approved. Among swing groups, his approval rating was even lower, hovering around one-third of the respondents.

This brings us to the Economist/YouGov survey released May 6. The poll asked simply, Which president “is more responsible for the state of the economy”? Fifty-one percent of Americans, and 55% of registered voters, chose Trump, compared to 28% and 31%, respectively, for Biden. Only 23% of moderate voters, 22% of independents and Hispanics, and 19% of young adults thought that Biden was more responsible than Trump for the economy.

This survey went on to test other key claims Trump made in response to the GDP report. For example, 75% of registered voters hold him “very” or “somewhat” responsible for the stock market. When asked for their response to the president’s assertion that this is Biden’s stock market, not his, 24% of registered voters agreed with him, but more than twice as many – fully 57% – disagreed.

In sum, the president is blaming his predecessor for the condition of the economy, but the American people aren’t buying it. One possible explanation for their rapid transfer of responsibility from the previous to the current president is that Trump is a victim of his own success. His unrivalled ability to command the public’s attention with vivid statements and bold action has highlighted his key economic measures, especially his imposition of record tariffs on friend and foe alike. He has drawn such a sharp line with his predecessor’s policies that it is hard for most people to understand how Biden’s influence on the economy could be continuing.

For better or worse, it’s now Donald Trump’s economy. If it performs poorly, he and his party will pay the price.

William A. Galston holds the Ezra Zilkha Chair in the Brookings Institution’s Governance Studies Program, where he serves as a senior fellow. A former policy advisor to President Clinton and presidential candidates, Galston is an expert on domestic policy, political campaigns, and elections. His current research focuses on designing a new social contract and the implications of political polarization.