Deja vu again.
Prime Minister Poilievre. Prime Minister Carney.
One of these guys will wear the crown, and the thorns, at the end of next month. A federal election is expected to begin on Sunday, as the new Lib leader does the ethical thing and takes his fate to the voters.
All elections matter. This one more than most. It feels like the first one I entered which was all about the FTA – a radical plan to forge a free trade agreement between Canada and the US. That was 1988. Mulroney swore it was the way forward for Canada. Liberal boss John Tuner vowed that keeping walls around the country was “the fight of my life.” That party bought heaps of TV airtime which featured a map, two negotiators and the border between Canada and the US being rubbed out.
Fear sells when it comes to politics, just like investments. It’s the greatest single motivator for most people. Canadians have a cherished history of voting against things instead of for them. But in 1988 Mulroney stuffed Parliament with MPs (I was one of them) because Canadians gave a big thumbs-up to increased trade, fewer duties and tariffs, and the economic expansion greater access to the world’s biggest market could bring.
The FTA eventually included Mexico, to become NAFTA. Then, eight years ago, it was renegotiated and renewed, becoming the USMCA. Trump signed it. Now he says it was a terrible deal and Canada is “one of the nastiest countries” to deal with.
So another election about trade, tariffs, Americans and which leader is best equipped to carve out a deal for our nation. With Trump 2.0 in place, it’s more consequential. He has trolled and belittled us. He’s mocked our leadership. He says we should be a state, like Rhode Island. And he’s stated that Canada, “is not a viable country.”
So, yup, Trump’s the ballot question. And the American boss made a point of saying on Fox News the other day that Poilievre is no MAGA supporter. That suggested Tariff Man wants to deal with Carney. Or maybe the crafty politician knows his endorsement is the kiss of death, and he’s telling Canadians to go all PP.
In any case, Canada’s Conservatives – now famous for spending the last two years saying our country is ‘broken’ and ‘weak’ – have been busy trying to shred the reputation, motives and persona of former central banker, world figure and investment executive Mark Carney. It’s typically vicious. Will it be effective?
The polls tell a stark tale lately. As the Trump threat grew, Poilievre’s negativity about our country and everyone in power started turning voters off. Trudeau’s final weeks in office raised his creds immensely as he stared into the camera and said, “Donald, this is a really dumb move.” After that, it was all flags, Canada geese, attack moose and elbows up. The outgoing PM’s approval rating surged 25 points.
In response, PP pivoted from we’re-all-gonna-die-because-of-Liberals to “Canada First.” Meanwhile a massive lead in public opinion melted away like the Parliament Hill snow in late March. The latest Angus Reid survey, for example, put the Libs in a majority. Unthinkable after Trudeau polled at 16% just months earlier.
“A whirlwind first quarter of 2025 has swept up Canadian politics and tossed it back down in an unrecognizable jumble,” says the pollster. “New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the governing Liberal Party – led by newly sworn-in Prime Minister Mark Carney – surging to a five-point vote intention advantage nationally after trailing by 29 points in late December. Were these numbers to hold, with the Liberals at 42 per cent in vote intention, what was a tired, discardable brand just three months ago would be on its way to a fourth term, this time with a majority.”
How did this happen?
PP miscalculated, it would appear, by spending all his time since being elected Con leader attacking two things. Trudeau, and the carbon tax. Now, both are gone. Meanwhile Trump’s existential tariff threat and his blathering about the 51st state have shocked, motivated and pissed-off tens of millions who realized they have pride of nation in their souls and patriotic rumblings in their hearts. Compared to the dumpster fire now burning south of the 49th parallel, the land of maple ain’t so bad. In the course of three months, Lib support jumped 30 points in diverse, vote-rich Toronto, for example.
Today 41% say Carney is best to face Trump, compared with 29% for Poilievre. Just weeks ago PP was 19 points ahead of Trudeau on the identical question. Now he’s viewed unfavourably by 55%, and favourably by 35%. This election is his to lose.
But wait. In the very midst of this electoral battle, Trump’s next wave of tariffs is set to hit. On April 2nd Canada may well be clobbered with the 25% on-everything levy, and possibly with other reciprocal taxes. Or the American president may cry wolf again. In any case, he’ll likely try to influence the way Canadians vote – as already appears to be the case.
Once again, the thin line between Canada and the US is about to be tested.
Will it hold?
About the picture: “Hi Garth – this is Sam and Cayley,” writes Lidia. “They’re helping me to stay grounded in all this political turmoil. Thank you for your daily witty posts. Writing you from beautiful Squamish B.C.”
To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.
Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/03/20/deja-vu-again-2/
