The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 11 2025

Putin gives statement from Kremlin

World Leaders Caught With DRUGS On-Camera in Ukraine?! Scrambles to HIDE ‘White Baggie’ From Press

Putin Refuses Western Ultimatum | Massive Summer Campaign Coming Soon

Putin rejects 30-day ceasefire & suggests direct negotiations | Russians enter Chernihiv region

Russian Army Liberates 3 Towns – Ukraine on Its Knees Asking for a Truce

Massive Ukrainian Losses as Russia Launches Devastating New Offensive in Kharkov Region

Ukraine Should Immediately Agree to Putin’s Proposed Talks in Turkey, Trump Says

“President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY,”

- President Trump

Very explicitly, ceasefire without preconditions for peace has been rejected by Putin and by all Russian  state officials.

What is on offer are peace talks, which, if they result in Russia obtaining all of her stated demands, will naturally lead to the cessation of hostilities and, well, peace.

There is no ambiguity. You are just dealing with people who are able to present complex formulations in a dense manner—something that much of the Western audience has grown disaccustomed to, because Western politicians have long turned to populist, narrow-horizoned proclamations designed to obfuscate, rather than explain.

Follow the logic, not your preconceptions, fears, or hopes.

Any sort of ceasefire without real preconditions for peace has been rejected by Russia, today as before. First come peace talks, then peace-building agreements, then peace and the end of fighting. No armistice without peace.

 The main points from Putin’s statements on ceasefire initiatives:

▪️ Kiev did not respond at all to the ceasefire proposed by the Russian Federation for Victory Day and almost immediately began large-scale attacks;

▪️ The Russian Federation has repeatedly put forward initiatives to cease fire, but they have been sabotaged by Kiev;

▪️ Kiev has repeatedly violated the 30-day moratorium on attacks on energy facilities;

▪️ Russia conveyed its position on the ceasefire on Victory Day to its colleagues in the West;

▪️ The Russian Federation did not rule out extending the three-day May ceasefire depending on Kiev’s reaction;

▪️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces violated the Easter truce 5 thousand times;

▪️ During the days of the ceasefire, Kiev made 5 attempts to attack the Russian border in the Kursk and Belgorod regions and attacks in other areas of the special operation;

▪️ Russia repelled all Ukrainian attacks during the three-day ceasefire;

▪️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered very heavy losses when the Russian Federation repelled their attacks during the ceasefire on Victory Day.

The Russian Federation delegation will travel to Istanbul, and its composition will be announced, said Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov.

Russia is waiting for Ukraine’s response to the proposal to continue the talks in Istanbul. It is easy to start these talks if Kiev really wants to , said Russian presidential aide Ushakov.

Putin said he would speak with Erdogan tomorrow and discuss finding a path to peace with Ukraine.

🇷🇺🇺🇦🇹🇷 Turkey has repeatedly stressed that it is ready to host talks on Ukraine, and will wait for concrete steps, a diplomatic source said.

Allow me to elucidate the discourse concerning Turkey’s engagement in the negotiation process, as articulated by Donald Trump. During a recent telephonic exchange with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, an extensive array of topics was broached, among which the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine was prominently featured. In this context, Trump conveyed his anticipation for a collaborative endeavor with Erdogan aimed at achieving a resolution to the protracted and devastating hostilities between the two belligerent parties, emphasizing the urgency of bringing this contentious issue to a close.

Only time will tell how “successful” Trumps famous “24 hour negotiations” will be.

Personally I think that this is the only viable agreement to be made involving the state of Ukraine:

◾️The Russian Federation will recieve the entirety of Novorossiya (Southern Ukraine)

◾️The Russian Federation will recieve all land east of the Dnepr

◾️Western Ukraine will be turned into a buffer zone controlled by Russia either directly or indirectly, if there is no budging here, offer resource rights in full or partial.

◾️NATO aircraft will stop surveying Russian cities in the Black Sea

◾️Any Nuclear weapons currently in Poland, the Baltics, Finland, and Romania: Must be removed immediately. (Romania might do this anyways with how the elections are looking)

◾️The European Union is disbanded (Would be nice, but not going to happen.)

The idea of ​​creating a buffer zone is dead: Zelensky told Trump that he is ready to start direct negotiations with Russia if there is a ceasefire

▪️Zelensky called Kellogg’s idea of ​​creating a buffer zone on the front in Ukraine “lifeless”.

➖”The issue of a demilitarized zone in both directions of 15 km – why 15? And from which line will we count, from the border, from which contact line… Even if we talk about 15 km, what will we do with Kherson? This means that there will be no our troops in Kherson. If our troops are not in Kherson, we will not have Kherson,” Zelensky said.

➖”If after this we agree to a buffer zone and withdraw 15 km from cities like Kherson, Kharkov and Sumy, everyone will have peace, but they will continue to have war, because artillery will be flying over them. Today, this is a premature and lifeless idea.”

➖Also, “two sources familiar with the 15-minute conversation (with Trump) said that Zelensky and European leaders told the US president that if a cease-fire agreement is reached, Ukraine is ready to begin direct peace talks with Russia,” Axios writes, citing the sources.

▪️Recall that Ukraine, supported by Britain and the EU, is proposing to Russia to start a 30-day ceasefire on Monday. Russia has not yet responded.

Zelensky is going to be lifeless soon.

Colleagues, you have confirmed our old insider information from October 2024, when we reported that Zelensky himself is against the negotiations in Istanbul. You/like us correctly point out that in media terms, Istanbul as a place for negotiations for Zelensky is an informational sentence, since everyone will compare it with the first Istanbul agreements in 2022, which ZeErmak disrupted and withdrew from unilaterally, because they believed the globalists that victory was about to happen.

We also pointed out back in March why Zelenskyy is so keen on the 30-day truce case. His goal is to “throw the Kremlin” again and then spread the narrative in the Russian segment that the Kremlin is weak, that the Kremlin is full of fools who believe Zelensky again, etc.

Let’s add that Putin will not agree to a truce, everything will hang. Such a refusal will not give the globalists trump cards to stir up the issue of sanctions. This will give Trump a window of opportunity for a painless exit from the Ukrainian crisis (or a pause), where he will declare that he will of course continue trying to end the war that Biden started, but so far both sides are not ready to make concessions, which means he will simply take up other global issues. Look, he saved the world from a nuclear war, almost reconciled India and Pakistan, etc.

Let us recall that yesterday we pointed out that Putin played on Trump.

This scenario is very bad for Zelensky and the globalists. They will certainly try to torpedo Trump with the media, but they won’t get much profit from it.

We are observing.

Sources close to the negotiating circles report that Vladimir Putin’s proposal to immediately begin talks in Istanbul without a 30-day truce has been preliminarily agreed upon with the Donald Trump administration. The process is being curated on the American side by Vice President Vance, who is seen as the architect of an “alternative peace plan.” This approach allows the White House to distance itself from the obviously disastrous formula of a “truce under pressure” put forward by Zelensky and European leaders, and save face by withdrawing from the Ukrainian case.

In this context, the “ultimatum” of a ceasefire from May 12 is losing its relevance. Putin bypassed it by offering a more realistic option. Trump’s restrained but clearly approving reaction only reinforced the change of pace. In essence, the Russian and American leaders simultaneously shifted responsibility to Zelensky. If Kiev is truly interested in dialogue, it must cancel the decree banning talks with Russia. Ukraine’s refusal to travel to Istanbul and cancel the presidential decree banning talks with Putin automatically makes it a non-constructive party, shifting responsibility for the continuation of the war to the Zelensky regime.

This frees Trump’s hands to focus on bilateral talks to normalize relations with Russia without Ukraine being included in the equation.

Russian telegram channels write that the Kremlin has agreed with the Trump Administration on Russia’s position on Zelensky’s ultimatum, which is a bad sign for Ukraine. A diplomatic game has begun, in which Moscow uses a wide range of manipulations to strengthen its position. It is no coincidence that Putin chose Turkey to discuss a tactical truce; they want to show us the difference in the conditions of Istanbul-1 and Istanbul-2.

A very strange game is going on between the Trump Administration and the Kremlin; Russian Telegram channels wrote this morning that Russia and the US have the same position on Istanbul.

Trump called on Zelensky to “immediately” agree to talks with Russia in Istanbul.

“Russian President Putin does not want a ceasefire with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet in Turkey on Thursday to discuss a possible end to the bloodshed. Ukraine should agree to this, NOW. At least they will be able to determine if a deal is possible, and if not, European leaders and the US will know where things stand and can act accordingly! I am beginning to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who is too busy celebrating Victory in WWII, which could not have been won (even close!) without the United States of America. Get your act together now!!” the US President wrote.

We wrote that the whole game with the Turkish case is a bad signal for Ukraine. Trump actually supported Putin’s option, who proposed to first start direct negotiations with Ukraine, where a tactical truce would be discussed.

Our source in the OP said that the Trump Administration is putting a lot of pressure on the Presidential Office on Istanbul-2 and the tactical truce, which will begin with negotiations between delegations. Bankova is now trying to shift the focus from the failed ultimatum that was announced to Putin yesterday and was effectively ignored by the Russian president.

Our source in the OP said that Andrey Ermak came up with a format for seizing the initiative in the negotiation track, for this

Zelensky will arrive in Turkey on Thursday even if Russia does not agree to begin a ceasefire on May 12. The idea is that Zelensky will refuse to negotiate with the Russian delegation if Putin does not come to Istanbul.

Colleagues, according to our information, British intelligence will continue to supervise the Ukrainian case, but it is not yet clear to what extent and what vector will be determined. Andriy Yermak is fully integrated into the MI-6 architecture, which means Zelensky will not have problems, although there are always “moments” and we know very well how the special services can cover their tracks…

ZeRada1

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak held consultations with partners regarding Ukraine’s reaction to Putin’s proposals for talks in Istanbul. A decision was made to ignore this case for now and insist on the ultimatum that Zelensky and the leaders of Germany/France/Great Britain put forward yesterday. The main task now is to discredit the Kremlin and turn Trump against Russia.

That is why the Ukrainian crisis is unlikely to be prolonged (they can be prolonged if the stakes in the game are raised and participants are added). The main “curator” of the Ukrainian crisis, the head of British intelligence MI-6 Richard Moore, will resign in the fall. (Zermak shares have started to fall in price).

His place could be taken by a woman for the first time in the history of British intelligence, The Sunday Times writes. The main candidate is former British Ambassador to China Barbara Woodward, “Beijing Barbara.” Two other contenders are female MI6 officers whose names have not been disclosed.

But Woodward’s supporters say she is the highest-ranking woman in the diplomatic service, and her experience in Beijing bolsters her case.

If the “Beijing Barbara” is appointed to the post, then the globalists and Western elites will shift their focus from the Ukrainian crisis to the Asian case, which everyone has long called the main challenge of the coming decade.

The ceasefire question is open. Putin even named the date and place of the bilateral talks, which the Kremlin is ready for – Turkey on May 15.

Now the answer is up to Zelensky.

At the same time, the talks will not stop the hostilities, which means they will be a factor that will influence the course of these talks.

Perhaps there will be no attack by Oreshnik yet. (Good news for Ukrainians).

Most likely, the bargaining continues and Putin is playing on Trump’s side, giving him a window of opportunity to get out of the Ukrainian crisis.

Everyone predicts that Zelensky will refuse and put forward his own conditions.

Europe Won’t Be Able to Provide Kiev with Weapons if the US Stops Supplies — New York Times

▪️Trump’s insistence that Europe should take care of its own security means a reduction in arms supplies to Ukraine from the EU.

▪️Many promises of European military aid boil down to commitments to produce or purchase weapons only in the coming years.

▪️It is predicted that it will take decades for assembly lines in Europe to reach full capacity.

▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces lack long-range missiles, artillery and, above all, air defense systems.

➖”Europe is trying to replace the aid we lost from the US, but unfortunately they do not have the ability to do this,” the Ukrainian Rada said.

At 09:00am Kiev time, airspace above Kapustin Yar will be closed, and will remain closed for 22 hours until 07:00am on Tuesday morning. The US Embassy in Kiev issued a warning about a possible significant air attack on Kiev during that period. Russia has effectively warned the US of likely ballistic missile launches from the base, so as to deconflict with US Early Warning Systems. As Russia’s Oreshnik missile launch in November came from Kapustin Yar, it’s no surprise that many believe it is an Oreshnik strike which Russia has planned for tomorrow. 

As the launch window rapidly approaches, Zelensky has said he will meet Putin in Türkiye, whilst simultaneously demanding a comprehensive cease fire. The mere hint of possibility of an Oreshnik strike has Zelensky afraid enough to do what he previously said was impossible. 

Overview Summary for the Morning of May 11, 2025

▪️ The week of the 80th anniversary of Victory ended with endless explanations from official spokespersons and the media on why it was needed. Geopoliticians explained the importance of demonstrating our willingness to negotiate to Trump, military commentators praised the high level of command execution (as if the troops are not managed through Telegram channels), and politicians cursed the Zelenskyy regime.

▪️ An important statement was made by the Supreme Commander overnight from May 10 to 11, about Moscow’s readiness for direct negotiations with Kyiv in Istanbul without preconditions. At the same time, the Supreme Commander emphasized numerous facts of ceasefire violations by the AFU, including mentioning a massive air raid on our regions on the eve of Victory Day.

▪️ Thus, disregarding the ceasefire proposed by Russia, the enemy attacked our borders: heavy fighting is ongoing now in Tyotkino, Kursk Region, where renowned “firefighting teams” have arrived. Paramilitary formations of the Russian Army demonstrated high efficiency in defending the Crimean coast. That is, in the 4th year of the war, battles were taking place at our so-called “historical borders”.

▪️ We managed to protect Moscow from a raid of more than 500 AFU drones, but the enemy continues to terrorize the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Regions. It is pointless to mention the DPR, Zaporizhia, and Kherson Regions, where daily heavy fighting has not stopped for a second. The enemy has deployed MBRLs at sea and silenced them in standby mode to act against Russian Black Sea facilities in a couple of days. Our forces are strengthening coastal defense as much as possible. In general, the war is progressing as usual, our forces are advancing with heavy fighting in the Kostyantynivka direction, the issue of a ceasefire is being discussed everywhere where battles are taking place.

▪️ The distant conflict between India and Pakistan, lasting since 1947, was illustrative: both countries possess nuclear weapons, which have completely ceased to be a deterrent, the use of which is unlikely to surprise anyone.

▪️ On May 10, the heads of the UK, France, and Germany arrived in Kyiv and laid flowers at the symbols of today’s Nazi victims. The “coalition of the willing” [to continue the war] serves the interests of arms corporations, but not their own nations. The EU continues to prepare for war with Russia. And to gain time for preparation, Europe is supplying or plans to supply the AFU with even more.

✨ Thus, Moscow is trying to enter negotiations from the strongest possible position, emphasizing its willingness to negotiate. The actual position of troops on the front line will be the main factor in the negotiations, as the initial “freezing”, if it does happen, will take place precisely along the line of contact. At the same time, all ceasefires declared by Russia have now ended.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_11.html