Canada Votes On New Government Monday After Shock Poll Reversal

Canada will elect a new government on Monday, with former central banker Mark Carney‘s liberal party vying to extend their hold on power against Pierre Poilievere’s conservatives. The first results are expected to come in just after 7 p.m. ET after voting hours end in the four Atlantic provinces, with the majority of results expected to be released at 9:30 p.m. when voting ends in most of the country, including in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec.

In January, it seemed Poilievere was a lock over the center-left Liberals, who had been in power for a decade under the leadership of unpopular PM Justin Trudeau. Conservatives had a double-digit lead in polls amid public outcry over Trudeau, inflation, and steep housing costs – leading Trudeau to bow out for a Liberal party leadership contest that saw Carney take pole position.

Then, after US President Donal Trump began threatening – and imposed, 25% tariffs on many goods from Canada, Carney’s fortunes shifted and he called an early election.

Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, declared that Canada’s “old relationship with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over.”

“President Trump is trying to break us so that America could own us,” he told a crowd at a London, Ontario rally on Friday.

Poilievere, meanwhile, had positioned himself as the ultimate candidate for change – vowing to deregulate vast swaths of the Canadian economy, and cracking down on the “woke” liberal establishment.

By mid-March, when the election was called, Carney’s liberals were polling neck and neck – and now maintain a narrow lead into the home stretch.

Carney has now positioned himself as the man most ready to counter Trump’s tariffs – with his supporters pointing to his strong resume.

“I’m very impressed by the stability and the serious thought process of Mark Carney,” Mike Brennan of Kitchener, Ontario told the BBC outside a Carney event at a Cambridge coffee shop, about an hour outside Toronto.

Brennan, a “lifelong Liberal,” says he initially wasn’t going to vote in the election over his hatred of Trudeau, however the departure of the former PM has reignited support for the Liberal party.

Stay tuned…